When I said BTC could visit 37k, in reality it only reached 38.5k. And last weekend on another run, I said it will visit 41.6k, but in fact it bottomed out at 42.1k.

So I missed the numbers by some fine margins there. Take this information as a DYOR. I could be more wrong in the future.

One thing though. When price goes up, I tend to stay silent, because it's very normal for Crypto assets to go bullish. BTC long term outlook is possibly 100k by the end of 2024, while SOL could reach beyond 250 usd this year.

But most of us don't do such long term investments here at Binance. Except maybe a handful minority. So when I see bearish outlook for the short-to-medium term, I don't know, I feel like.. better I write to you guys, just as precautions.

It is impossible for bull move to stay bullish forever, anyway. Even the strongest bull will need progress to arrive at the moon.

Retracement, Corrections, Pullbacks, are all important elements for healthy and balanced market. I'm sure you understand.

And now I'm gonna tell you my short-medium vision for Solana.

Yesterday SOL jumped high from 94 to 102, so it is normal to expect corrections.

I think it's possible for SOL to revisit somewhere down between 99.6 to 98.4, the main pivotal area of the last two weeks. Before we are (likely) to resume the bulls back to 105-106 area and beyond.

The base of this prediction is backed by the movements you can see on 1H chart.

In total, there was 8 attempts already for SOL to test the 102 area in every 1H candle. Where all were rejected.

This resulted as an apparent pattern of Double Top in SOLUSDT chart, which is commonly a sign of reversal to go bearish.

Though since it's only looked clearer in the frame of 1H chart, it shouldn't be taken as too massive. So I'll exclude a move down as far to 97.5 (could be just a 'false break' when it's happen).

The more likely is just around 98 to 99 area. And a premature bounce back could be (again) on the 100 area (like how we see recently today).

Again, take this information as DYOR. It's only a prediction.

#Write2Earn #SOL

Last week I said that for BTC to continue bullish, it needs to stay well above 42.5k, which has been the case for quite some time now, where it resides around 42.9 - 43.8k as of the time of this writing.

But despite this fact, it still struggling to make a move into the coveted 44k area and beyond. With the price instead shouldering an apparent selling pressure now around the 43k area.

And looking at the current viewpoint again, we can see that in 1H chart the price has been consistently making lower highs for more than 13 hours now since the start of the day, and the selling press is still can be felt and insistent.

Then if we see 4H chart, not only there are a vast empty space below (which commonly attract selling craves). But also I just realized that the current arc seems to be forming and could complete an Elliott Wave, where the current price movement possibly acting as the Wave C (the ending). If this is true, Wave C normally targets a price nearby or just below the end of Wave 4, which in this case is around 41.6k.

But if BTC managed to fend off the selling press and move upward to cancel the Elliott Wave, it should retest the previous high of 43.8k.

#BTC #Write2Earn #ElliottWave

I'm not particularly fond of the idea of 'Basket Trading'. To me, it brings more drawbacks than benefits, toward the overall dynamics of the trading environment.

CONTEXT

In general, big players uses the Basket to split their capital into 10 to 15, or even 20 different assets which they deemed 'worthy' or 'hot'. And then they'll BUY or SELL them at the same time altogether at a given price action.

THE BIGGEST HINDRANCE

Since they are 'big players', of course they have big capitals. And what happen when they execute trades using Basket ?

Chaos.

See the key take here is about "Buy or Sell at the same time".

Yes, SAME TIME.
Meaning, that they actually disregarded what was happening on the whole other 19 charts.

Mostly they only cares about BTC situation, since it has the most volume. They don't care what trendline is happening at Solana, what chart outlook is unfolding on AVAX or ETH, and so on and so on.

When they want to sell BTC, they broke apart other charts since they also included the other 'hot' commodity into their Basket. Even JUP is already there now inside it, as you can see the same dip in 5 minute chart.

Vice versa when they want to buy a big chunk of BTC, other assets will be boosted too.

UNCERTAINTY

This condition is actually detrimental to the community of Crypto Traders.

Since you know BTC always drags your token's chart, then you eventually feeling the need to understand the current situation of BTC. Like, where are Support lines, where Resistance, where the outlook going, etc.

Because hey, who would knows what will happens when BTC moves next, right ?

For example, 1d BTC is pointing down, it looks like could repeat the pattern of previous move from 49k to 38k (not actual prediction, just FUD example). Putting 'Selling Pressure' into SOL instead of what supposed to be just a normal retracement.

CONCERN FOR THE BETTER

If I was in charge of the regulation, I'd really like to remove and ban Basket Trading. As it is unfair, and the users are irresponsible to the damage it causes elsewhere.

Unfortunately, I'm just a nobody.

#Write2Earn

A lot of Crypto fans seems to associate bear market with the term 'depression' and 'loss'.

I wonder why.

Since you can gain profit from the move down too. So it's not actually true that 'bear' always resulted in 'loss' for every trader. No.

😳 "Wait, we can get profit from price moving down in Crypto ?"

Of course. 'Short Selling' works on Crypto too.

The same concept of buying (or Long). You buy low and gain profit at high. Shorting is just the counteract: You sell high and gain at low.

So if you think many people are losing money or losing value when the market down, you're actually incorrect.

Many of them (especially professionals, brokers, institutions, etc) are doing Short Selling, to ride the price down and receive more money below. And re-buy the Crypto with more quantity since the price is then cheaper.

So why do you be depressed, as if you can't do the same ?

🤷🏻 "But, don't we need a Margin account to do Shorting ? I don't want to do Margin, risk too high for me."

It used to be "yes you need Margin fund to do Shorting". But recently, it's no longer the case. At least not for some of the major tokens.

Even here in Binance, you can Short crypto using some of the DOWN token.

- BTCDOWN/USDT
- ETHDOWN/USDT
- BNBDOWN/USDT

These are not Margin pairs. They are available in Spot Market. Different from Margin trading, here you can't get liquidated from too much loss.

Instead of actually short selling yourself (like in Margin trade), if you "buy" these tokens in Spot, they will do the short selling for you. Kind of engine (managed by Binance system, called BLVT) to help you gain in every price down. And then you can claim the profit when the actual token (BTC, ETH, BNB) arrived at lower price, by selecting "Sell" on the corresponding DOWN token.

So, no longer need to worry about a market down. You can profit both ways anyway. Just analyze the situation carefully, and adjust your direction.

-------
This is not a financial advice. DYOR. I only share the info since a lot of people (especially newcomers) seems hasn't aware of this feature. Cheers.

Many people, media, and journalists suggest that ETF approval and GBTC outflows are the main reason behind the current BTC falloff in this early 2024. I wouldn't disagree, but I think there's still another reason on top of that too.

Technically speaking, if we take a look at the Weekly Candle Chart, I see that the new high of January 2024 at 48.9k was apparently met by a previous high, dated back from March 2022.

As you guys know that whales, banks, and institutions are notoriously known for looking to scoop some cheap buys at low prices, and await long-term to seek for a towering new high before taking profits.

What I see currently are, could be simply just them, doing the usual things they do year-in year-out.

Soar the price high. Meet a strong resistance in due time. Take a huge profit to pay dividends. And look for a new low buy after that. Repeat every year.

Though we have touched 39k recently, but the reversal move is believed to depend on whether BTC would be able to reach back 42k and stay above it this week. Otherwise, the seek of the bottom could continue well into 37k or below, before the dawn of fresh new bulls.

What do you guys think ? Feel free to comment below.