#Write2Earn - Everything will be decided tonight Today the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the key interest rate. This is crucial for #BitcoināÆāÆāÆ -in short, lower rates tend to make #Crypto more valuable š±
More important is the speech by the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell.
ā¢ Bear year: Fluctuations between -3% and +30%. ā¢ "Normal" or bull year: Gains between x3 and x17. ā¢ "Anomaly" year (e.g., 2021): Exceptionally high performance.
Risks:
ā¢ Risk level 1: Drawdown (DD) of -25% reached 14 times in 5 years (about 3 times per year). ā¢ Risk level 2: DD of -40/55% reached 3 times in 5 years (less than once a year).
Comparison with Bitcoin (BTC):
ā¢ Average annual time where performance exceeds BTC: 77.34%.
Average duration to achieve gain multipliers in non-bear year:
ā¢ For x2: 3.53 months on average. ā¢ For x4: 7.28 months on average.
Temporal Distribution of Trends:
ā¢ Sideways: 73% of the time. ā¢ Rapid Increases: 27% of the time.
Growth periods:
ā¢ Duration: Growth periods range from 1 month to 2.5 months.
Growth Amplitude:
ā¢ Minimum gain in a growth period: approximately +100%. ā¢ Maximum gain (exceptional year, as observed in 2021) in a growth period: about +