A week split in 2.
Calm slightly Bullish conditions until late Wednesday-Thursday.
On Thursday the storm starts.(12:30pm UTC)
This week has a lot of high impact news but the main focus will on 2 major things,
1- Unemployment claims on the 27th June.
I personally think if(only if) we see further major downside in crypto it will be because the large funds are pricing in a possible recession.
Labour and unemployment will be a key focus, the readings now are critical, they are expected at 240k and we need them to come in around 5k either side of that, a collapse in the labour market happens fast if a recession looms.
Most analysts don’t predict a recession but a few well respected ones who predicted the 2008 crash have started to say it is getting more likely towards the end of 2024- early 2025.
Both the pessimists and optimists make valid points, I am researching further and will post about it in the coming days.
2- Core PCE 28th June.
If you follow the market you will know this is the FEDs preferred gauge of inflation, I have read reports from 4 separate analysts and they predict 0.11%-0.15%, if it does come out around 0.1% as expected it would be a good reading for crypto.
The FOMC statement(June 12th) that has driven down crypto prices did not take into account the CPI(inflation) data from earlier that day, the fed predicted only 1 rate cut in the statement, the good CPI readings that were not accounted for lead many to believe the statement was already outdated on release.
To put it simply, we need the unemployment and PCE to be as expected and it will be good for crypto.(It will keep 2 cuts possible and fears of a recession at bay)
If unemployment has a steep rise it’s probably time to abandon ship.
If you want to enter short term trades in the coming days and you are in profit nearing Thursday I would advise taking partial/full profits.
I expect a LOT of volatility on Thursday(Unemployment, Pending home sales, GDP q/q) and Friday(Core PCE)
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