Introduction
I am crypto only futures and spot trader with 5 years of experience. Survived the big crush of the COVID period and post-COVID, predicted the fall and shorted it till 23.000$ then I stopped trading for a while, losted part of my profit and 5 months ago bitcoin got my attention once again. I specify on shorts only, I profit on long position only on spot. MY GOAL is to make useful researches, fundamental analyzes and share it with you, hoping that I will get some of your attention in return.
Now let's comeback to Data:
This is one of my most important research work covering macroeconomics, bicoin cycles, side to side comparison, learning bitcoin patterns and other crucial aspects
Data and Analysis
What we can expect in 2024 based on past patterns. Let's break it down with some compelling insights
Pay attention to the simillarities on the table! It's crucial to understand why the cycle is so simillar in bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Cycles and Halving Effects
Bitcoin’s market operates on a four-year halving cycle, reducing mining rewards and driving prices up. Here's a closer look at these cycles and their future implications.
Macroeconomic Shifts: 2021 vs. 2024
The economic landscape has changed dramatically from 2021 to 2024, making the latter more challenging. Here’s why:
🧧 Global Financial Stability
2021🍂
Post-COVID Recovery: Economies were bouncing back. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, implemented QE and stimulus measures, injecting liquidity and keeping interest rates near zero. The US GDP grew by 5.7% (Bitcoin Magazine).
Economic Growth: Surprisingly GDP growth was robust, driven by easing lockdowns and vaccination efforts.
2024🍃
Economic Slowdown: Global GDP growth has slowed to around 2.4% due to persistent inflation and tighter monetary policies (CoinGecko).
Increased Interest Rates: Central banks have raised rates significantly to combat inflation, with the Fed’s rates at 5%, increasing borrowing costs (coinglass).
🧧 Geopolitical Tensions
2021🍂
Stable Climate: Geopolitical tensions were present but contained, allowing trade recovery.
2024🍃
Escalated Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts and economic wars have disrupted global supply chains and trade.
Sanctions and Trade Wars: New sanctions and trade restrictions have strained international relations.
🧧 Inflation and Currency Devaluation
2021🍂
Moderate Inflation: Inflation was at 4.7%, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand (Bitcoin Magazine).
2024🍃
High Inflation: Inflation has surged to 8%, eroding purchasing power and increasing living costs.
Currency Weakness: Major currencies have depreciated against the US dollar, raising import costs.
🧧 Technological and Regulatory Environment
2021🍂
Regulatory Uncertainty: The crypto regulatory environment was evolving, with mixed signals from governments. Institutional interest was high.
Tech Progress: Advancements like SegWit improved Bitcoin’s scalability.
2024🍃
Regulatory Clarity and Tightening: Stricter regulations have been implemented, including higher taxes and compliance measures, dampening investor enthusiasm.
Technological Maturation: Innovations continue but at a slower pace, focusing more on compliance and security.
🧧 Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior
2021🍂
Bullish Enthusiasm: The market was bullish, driven by post-COVID recovery and rising crypto adoption (coinglass).
Diversifying Investor Base: More institutional investors entered the market, adding stability and speculation.
2024🍃
Bearish Caution: Sentiment is more cautious due to economic uncertainties and high inflation. Investors are wary, reducing exposure to high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Flight to Safety: Investors favor safer investments like gold and government bonds over volatile cryptocurrencies.
Final conclusion:
The macroeconomic conditions in 2024 are significantly more challenging compared to 2021. With higher inflation, intensified geopolitical tensions, stricter regulations, and a more cautious investor sentiment, the economic landscape is both volatile and uncertain. These factors make 2024 potentially tougher for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, yet also ripe with strategic opportunities for the informed investor.
Technical Analysis Summary: Watch for Bitcoin stabilizing around the 200-day moving average and RSI levels indicating oversold conditions. Key indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and volume trends will be crucial in predicting market movements.
Outlook: Based on historical trends, Bitcoin may stabilize and rise before the July FOMC meeting. This period could be a prime entry point for savvy investors. Monitoring market indicators and macroeconomic trends will be essential. Despite the broader global crisis, the crypto market might be less impacted, presenting unique investment opportunities.
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