A central characteristic of BTC cycle tops is the dominance of coins with a holding period of less than 3 months.
Historically, this indicates that long-term holders (smart money) have already taken their profits, leaving the market under the control of speculators and new entrants, resulting in a more volatile market structure.
In previous cycles, the proportion of the realized cap held by this age group (<3m) exceeded 70% during market peaks. Currently, only about 35% of the realized cap is in the hands of these short-term holders, a level comparable to the early stages of previous bull markets.
Another crucial indicator at the tops of previous cycles is the realized profit level among short-term holders, measured by the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of this group, which exceeded 1.10 on a 14-day moving average. In the current cycle, the highest peak was 1.05 when Bitcoin reached its all-time high, now operating in a more neutral zone.
This structure suggests that we have not yet reached the peak euphoria of this cycle. The predominance of long-term holders in the market forms a more solid price support base. This robust structure and the relative scarcity of short-term holders make an immediate transition to a bear market less likely, indicating that there is still potential for a significant rally before the cycle top formation.
Written by Gustavo Faria