We almost returned from yesterday's #BTC sharp decline of nearly 9% right before the incorrect #ArkhamIntelligence alert that Mt Gox and US Govt Wallets are Making Transactions
This is again a reminder that you should double-check any information you see, especially when it's not hard to verify any transaction on-chain.
Such movements of almost 9% in less than one hour testify that there is very little liquidity in the market right now, so we should be very careful with any positions.
Such companies as Google and Meta showed good results.
We are interested in them because companies that are making money from ads show the current status of the economy, i.e. how much money other companies are ready to spend on ads.
Only around 30% of stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 in the past 20 days. The last time it happened was in 2000.
This shows us that the current rally is not stable, S&P 500 is growing only because of the few technological giants.
The put/Call Ratio is on Aug 2022 levels (before the big drop).
Smart money is betting on the decline.
Globally everything hints at a downtrend, but we have a few bullish sentiments, for example, the FOMC meeting and any positive news/updates.
As for probabilities of FOMC rate moves, on May 3 most probably (80.5%) there will be a 25bp raise and more than 60% probability that it will be the last raise.