Historical data on market cycles and the value of one of the major technical indicators may indicate further Bitcoin appreciation
Bitcoin could surpass the all-time high of $69,000 by the time of the fourth halving, scheduled for the second half of April. About it writes CoinDesk.
Technical indicators
Based on data from the relative strength index (RSI) indicator, which measures the speed and change in prices, Markus Tillen suggested an acceleration of bitcoin's uptrend.
A week ago, bitcoin's 14-day RSI exceeded the 80 mark for the first time since December. According to 10X Research, 12 out of 14 times in the past when the RSI exceeded the 70 mark. That bitcoin price rose an average of 54% over the next 60 days.
"It's worth noting that the previous time this signal appeared, the bitcoin price was at $48k. When considering an average return of 54% over 60 days, bitcoin could rise to the $74,600 level," noted Markis Tillen of 10X Research.
The bitcoin price is at $52k, as of February 20, which is 25% above the price level at the beginning of the year and 207% above the low reached in November 2022. Bitcoin quotes are just 28% below the all-time high of $69k. And with that, the supply of coins will decrease as a result of the upcoming halving.
The second reason is Market Cyclicality
Our experts note that as previous cycles have shown. Which are related to bitcoin halving, the bottom of bitcoin price often comes 12-16 months before the halving. And then a period of growth follows, both before the event itself and for a year afterward. In the previous three cycles, bitcoin prices rose more than 30% in the eight weeks before the halving.
Based on historical data, bitcoin rises an average of 32% in the 60 days before the halving. "By the time of the halving or even earlier, the value of BTC could be approaching a record high of $69,000," CoinDesk quoted Marcus Tillen as saying.
The assumptions of other cryptocurrency market analysts coincide with the predictions of 10X Research. Analysts of the trading company QCP Capital published a note for investors. And in which they allowed the possibility of BTC exceeding the historical maximum already by the end of March. In their opinion, the price of digital currency will depend on the inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and accumulation of options to buy bitcoin with strike prices of $60-80 thousand.
According to the calculations of another analytical company - CryptoQuant, the price of the first cryptocurrency can grow to $112 thousand. And if the current trend of inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds ( ETF) for BTC continues.