As Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, it might feel like the chances of it rising further are slim. However, when Bitcoin does rise, it’s often a rapid surge. While the chance of a decline seems higher, even in the worst case, the price may only halve.
Imagine you're on a high-speed train heading toward the future, but it suddenly stops. There's an 80% chance it will reverse and restart in an hour, but there's also a 20% chance it will continue forward without warning. If you decide to get off and rest, betting on the train not starting immediately, would you take that risk?
It’s wise not to. That one hour of rest won’t bring much, and if the train suddenly moves forward while you're off, you’ll miss out.
For Bitcoin, this low-probability event is what we call a "black swan." If an unexpected crisis hits the economy, Bitcoin could surge unexpectedly, and if you’re not on board, you’ll be left watching others ride ahead.