Bitcoin (BTC) continues to reach new all-time highs, and crypto investors are trying to determine the next price level that the digital asset will surpass. Analysts have identified on-chain conditions to consider in predicting future price levels. A report from market intelligence platform Santiment suggests focusing on the market state when BTC prices peak instead of speculating on how high the prices can go.
Market sentiment when BTC prices peak can be determined by assessing the actions of smaller BTC holders and the profits they make during the price rally. Examining the current market sentiment is crucial for future insights. The market can be analyzed through technical analysis, sentiment analysis, and on-chain analysis.
Santiment has had success using these metrics to estimate and predict previous BTC tops. Retail activity and profit-taking patterns are essential indicators of the market’s state. The behavior of smaller BTC holders shows whether retail traders are joining the rally, and profit-taking patterns signal retail greed and fear of missing out (FOMO), often preceding market tops.
According to Santiment’s analysis, retail activity and profit-taking had not fully materialized by November 13. On-chain data shows that retail investors started decreasing their BTC balances in mid-October when the rally began. Santiment analysts found a healthy profit-taking pattern, with spikes correlating with each uptick in Bitcoin’s price.
When Bitcoin reaches a market top this season, analysts expect to witness a pattern similar to the one seen earlier this year when BTC hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March. Experts believe that it may take some time before BTC records a top in this cycle, as the leading crypto asset could potentially rally as high as $150,000, or the bull market could extend to October 2025.
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