🚨🚨 Bitcoin’s Path to Sustaining $100,000 Hinges on $11.8 Billion Year-End Options Expiry 🚨🚨
Key Event: The upcoming $11.8 billion options expiry, scheduled for December 27 at 8:00 am UTC, could be pivotal in determining Bitcoin’s ability to reach and hold the $100,000 mark.
Current Market Position: As of now, open interest in call (buy) options totals $7.9 billion, while put (sell) options stand at $3.92 billion. With Bitcoin up 29% since October, most put options have likely lost value.
Market Share: Deribit leads with a 74% share of the options market, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance, each holding 10.3%, and OKX with 4.3%.
Price Influence: Bulls and bears are incentivized to affect Bitcoin’s spot price, with outcomes around expiry influenced by the imbalance of options at various strike prices.
Potential for BTC Price Surge with December Options Expiry
Regulatory Boost: President-elect Donald Trump’s recent victory has boosted investor sentiment, with promises to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler and a wave of pro-crypto lawmakers entering Congress.
Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance could ease regulatory hurdles, including support for a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” and directives for agencies to hold rather than liquidate seized BTC. Legislation from Senator Cynthia Lummis aims to accumulate up to 1 million Bitcoin over time.
Expiry Projections: Total open interest for the December expiry stands at $11.8 billion, but the recent surge above $80,000 has caught bears off guard, likely reducing the final amount in play.
If Bitcoin holds near $88,000 at 8:00 am UTC on December 27, only $96 million in put options will remain active, as sell options below $85,000 become irrelevant at this level.