The latest CPI median forecast for October 2024 shows a year-over-year increase of 2.6% (unadjusted), a potential pivot after six straight months of declining figures since March 2024. If realized, October would register the first monthly rise in the year-over-year CPI since then.
September’s CPI increased by 2.4% YOY, just above the 2.3% estimate. In the past 12 months, CPI has outpaced forecasts in 5 months, matched them in 2, and lagged in 5. Looking at a broader 5-year horizon, CPI has exceeded the median estimate 52% of the time, matched it 17%, and come in below 32% of the time.
FactSet’s median estimate of 2.6% for October pulls from 12 estimates, with a range from 2.4% to 2.6% (a 20-basis-point spread), notably narrower than the recent 12-month average spread of 26 bps and the 5-year average spread of 49 bps.
For October’s Core CPI (excluding food and energy), the median forecast anticipates a 3.3% YOY increase.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish the actual October CPI and Core CPI figures tomorrow, November 13.
