A Whale From France Made a Profit of $47.8M by Betting on #Trump!
Let’s see how he did it!👇
The whale, a wealthy Frenchman who previously worked as a trader at several banks, began using his mathematical expertise to analyze U.S. polls this summer.
On #Polymarket, we observed that the whale joined in June, taking on the username "Fredi9999".
On August 3, he started withdrawing $USDC from #Kraken to place bets on #Polymarket.
He said his wagers were essentially bets on the accuracy of polling data.
He believes that the polls overstate #Harris’s support and fail to account for the "shy Trump voter effect."
He explained that #Trump supporters either don’t want to tell pollsters they back the former president or prefer not to participate in polls at all.
To address this, he advocates for the use of "neighbor polls," where respondents are asked which candidate they believe their neighbors are likely to support.
The theory is that people may not want to reveal their personal preferences directly but might reveal them indirectly when guessing who their neighbors plan to vote for.
To test his idea, he commissioned a large polling agency to conduct surveys using both neighbor polling and traditional polling methods.
These polls showed that when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, Harris’s support dropped by several percentage points compared to direct questioning.
So starting on October 2, he created three additional accounts (Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie) to continue raising his bets on #Trump.
Between October 2 and November 5, he withdrew a total of 42M $USDC from #Kraken to bet on #Trump’s victory in the election.
On Tuesday night, as election results trickled in, he was thrilled, waking up in the middle of the night in France to check updates.
In the end, he earned a profit of $47.8M!
Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d
Address: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1f2dd6d473f3e824cd2f8a89d9c69fb96f6ad0cf
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x8119010a6e589062aa03583bb3f39ca632d9f887
https://polymarket.com/profile/0xed2239a9150c3920000d0094d28fa51c7db03dd0
