BlockBeats News, November 5th. QCP released its daily analysis stating that the day has finally arrived. In the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets, market anxiety is evident as the upcoming election approaches. Due to Trump's influence on forecasting market leadership, attention has been given to the dollar, cryptocurrency long positions, and bets on rising bond yields ahead of the election. However, a Harris victory could reverse these gains, leading to significant overnight market volatility. The cryptocurrency options market anticipates a +/- 3.5% swing for Bitcoin on election night. However, traders may underestimate the post-election risk as the volatility premium after the November 8th expiry is low, indicating that the market expects a swift outcome.
Bitcoin is still seen as part of the "Trump trade." On Monday, as polls showed Harris in a slight lead, the Bitcoin spot price dropped, and spot ETFs saw significant outflows. Volatility is nearly certain. Recalling 2016, when Trump unexpectedly won, U.S. futures initially plummeted, then rebounded, with the next two days becoming the most active trading days in six months. Similarly in 2020, it wasn't until four days after the election that Joe Biden was officially declared the winner, leading to trading volumes spiking to six-month highs. As the voting results are announced, the Bitcoin spot price will experience sharp fluctuations, so fasten your seatbelt.
