As the U.S. presidential election approaches, markets are betting on wild price swings that could challenge directional traders. In light of this, 10x Research suggests a savvy pair trade involving market leader bitcoin (BTC) and programmable blockchain Solana's (SOL) token as a tactical bet to navigate the expected election-led turbulence.
"A tactical trade heading into the election could involve going long bitcoin and short solana," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients on Monday.
Thielen explained that the election's outcome would have far-reaching implications for digital assets, including potential approval of a U.S.-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to alternative cryptocurrencies, such as SOL.
"If Harris wins, the likelihood of these ETFs getting approved may decrease, potentially leading to a 15% drop in solana, while bitcoin might experience a more limited decline of around 9%," Thielen said, adding that a Trump victory could see SOL, BTC and ether rise by around 5%.
BTC and ETH might see bigger gains than SOL on potential Trump victory, as spot ETFs tied to bitcoin and ether are already trading in the U.S. and have amassed billions of dollars in investor money this year. The availability of an alternative investment vehicle might translate into bigger gains in anticipation of favorable regulatory policy under Trump's presidency.
SOL has yet to get its first spot in ETF. As of today, VanEck, 21Shares and Canary Capital have filed for SOL ETFs with the U.S. SEC.
The U.S. will head to vote to elect its new president in a few hours. Per the latest reports, the presidential race is tight, with Democrat Kamala Harris and the supposedly crypto-friendly Donald Trump running neck and neck in several swing states.
According to Thielen, another reason to be short SOL is that daily transaction fees on the Solana network have cooled to $2.5 million, hitting a record high of $5 million on Oct. 24, according to data source Artemis and TokenTerminal. Similar drop-offs in fees have historically weighed over the token prices.
As of writing, the SOL-BTC ratio traded at 0.00235 on Binance, per charting platform TradingView.
