According to Odaily, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael D. Zezas has advised investors to focus on situational awareness during the US election period and avoid overconfidence regarding the election outcome and its market impact. Zezas suggests that investors might benefit from adjusting their expectations. He notes that the rising implied probability of a Republican victory has led some to anticipate a clear result on election night. While Morgan Stanley acknowledges this possibility, they do not consider it the most likely scenario. Neither candidate appears to be a clear favorite to win the Electoral College, potentially leading to a prolonged vote-counting process similar to the 2020 election.
Given the historically poor performance of early voting data, Morgan Stanley does not place significant weight on these figures and advises against overinterpreting short-term market movements. The company highlights that the market's immediate reaction to the election is often noisy and may not accurately predict mid-term trends.