The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election continues to heat up on prediction markets, with Donald Trump’s chances of winning reaching 59.5%, according to Polymarket, a leading decentralized prediction platform. This marks a notable 1.6% increase in the past 24 hours, boosting speculation about Trump’s potential path to victory.
On polymarket, the chance of #DonaldTrump winning the US election has risen to 59.5%.Whale"Fredi9999" spent another $938K to buy 1.59M "Yes" shares that #DonaldTrump will win the US election in the past 12 hours, and currently holds 16.62M "Yes" shares, worth $9.9M.… pic.twitter.com/bM5R6gLSkE
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 16, 2024
A key factor driving Trump’s increasing odds is a massive bet made by an influential market player known as “Fredi9999.” Over the past 12 hours, this whale investor has doubled down on their prediction, purchasing an additional $938,000 worth of “Yes” shares, which reflect the belief that Trump will win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This latest investment added 1.59 million shares to their position.
According to Lookonchain, in total, “Fredi9999” now holds 16.62 million “Yes” shares on Polymarket, which are currently valued at approximately $9.9 million. The whale’s cumulative profit stands at $1.6 million, demonstrating a high level of confidence in Trump’s chances. The surge in buying activity from such a major player is seen as a significant indicator of sentiment within prediction markets, often swaying public perception of the race.
Polymarket Predicts Trump Leading Over Harris
The Polymarket data further indicates that Trump is currently leading against Vice President Kamala Harris, who trails with just 40.2% odds of winning the election. Harris’s numbers have slipped by 1.5% as Trump’s rise continues. This margin suggests a clear gap between the two candidates, though the race is far from over, as campaign dynamics could shift rapidly in the months leading up to the election.
The prediction market’s map shows Trump performing strongly in crucial swing states like Florida, Texas, and Ohio. At the same time, Harris holds a lead in more traditionally Democratic states, such as California and New York. However, the overall trend currently favors Trump, with his odds buoyed by strong support from prominent investors like “Fredi9999.”
While prediction markets like Polymarket are not always definitive indicators of election outcomes, they do provide valuable insights into market sentiment and the broader perception of the race. The large-scale investments from prominent figures such as “Fredi9999” highlight growing confidence in a Trump victory, which could influence political discourse and campaign strategies moving forward. As the 2024 election approaches, all eyes will remain on the prediction markets, with investors, analysts, and political observers closely monitoring shifts in sentiment.