The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict sent the Bitcoin price tumbling down weith altcoins as oil, bonds, gold, and the USD rally

The intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict has caused Bitcoin and altcoins to experience a sharp decline, while traditional assets like oil, bonds, gold, and the US dollar have seen a rally. Despite October typically being a bullish month, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to notable selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.

As conflict escalates, investors are gravitating toward safer assets, moving away from riskier investments. Historically, wars tend to trigger initial downturns in the markets, with the S&P 500 often showing negative performance in the early months of such conflicts.

Since the escalation began on Tuesday, Bitcoin has dropped 3.16%, hovering around $61,715, while altcoins, particularly Ethereum, have fallen between 5-10%. After a strong performance in September, Bitcoin struggled to maintain its price above $65,000, facing increased selling pressure following Iran's missile strikes on Israel.

Although Bitcoin has historically averaged gains of 20% in October, it has already declined by 4% in the first two days. Sean McNulty, director of trading at Arbelos Markets, referred to this situation as a "momentary setback," emphasizing that October's bullish trend for Bitcoin remains intact.

Market anxiety is heightened as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised a strong response to the Iranian attacks. Notably, Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $242 million on Tuesday, marking the end of eight consecutive days of inflows. Some analysts are pessimistic about Bitcoin reaching its all-time high in the near term, suggesting a possible delay until mid-November. Additionally, weak US PMI data suggests economic contraction, further pressuring the market.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that after the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2019, Bitcoin initially rallied for two weeks before experiencing a decline to the 100-week SMA two months later. If this trend recurs, a correction could potentially bring Bitcoin's price down to the $50,000 mark by mid-November.

The ongoing conflict is driving investors toward safe-haven assets, and according to a JPMorgan report, Bitcoin mining revenues have hit their lowest levels in September. Should miners face further capitulation, this could result in additional selling pressure.

**Potential Market Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict**

Typically, the onset of wars results in immediate market reactions. Historical patterns suggest that following significant geopolitical events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the S&P 500 dropped by 11.5% over three months. Given Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500, its price movements will be closely monitored in light of the Israel-Iran situation.

On the same day as the escalation, the S&P 500 fell by 1%, while oil prices surged 5% as markets reacted to the possibility of an armed conflict.

The Kobeissi Letter indicates that, on average, the S&P 500 declines by about 2% at the onset of major conflicts, with an average total drawdown of 8.2%. However, the economic context, particularly whether a recession is ongoing, plays a crucial role in determining market outcomes. In non-recessionary periods, the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 during war years is about 9.5%. Conversely, during recession years, that figure turns negative, averaging -11.5%.

For instance, following the 9/11 attacks in 2002, the S&P 500 plummeted 18% while the economy was in recession. The impact of Federal Reserve policies will be pivotal in determining whether a recession can be avoided this year.

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