Get ready for the big event on the 18th

Here’s what you need to know:

The market expects a 50:50, there’s a 50% chance we’ll see a 0.25% rate cut, and another 50% chance of a 0.50% cut. But remember when I told you two months ago that Jerome Powell would deliver a 0.50% cut in September? No one believed me then. I also predicted the CPI and PPI numbers would come in better than expected twice in a row, both times as predicted. Yes it played out and yes you ill see a 0.50% rate cut.

Why? A 0.25% cut is simply too little for where we are now. If the Fed doesn’t go for a 0.50% cut, we WILL face another "Blood Monday" a market crash like the one we saw few weeks ago. Powell wants to avoid that. He’ll likely point to inflation falling faster than expected and express satisfaction with the Fed's aggressive rate hike strategy. He’ll emphasize how much brighter the economic outlook is, with no fear of recession, and more cuts potentially on the horizon. Know you understand why it was so easy to predict that CPI and PPI will end up better than market expects, it opens the door for 0.50 and its more than obvious.I don’t get how so-called experts can even suggest a 0.25% cut. It’s too low. A 0.50% cut should be the minimum. That's my call for what’s going to happen on the 18th.

Market Insight: A Gamble on BTC and Stocks

Now, let's talk Bitcoin and stocks. I’ll be straight with you, it’s a casino right now, a big gamble ahead of the 18th. Expect wicks on both sides and wild volatility. It’s impossible to predict what will move first or where it will land. Personally, I’m holding my positions, spot and the longs I called at $50K and $53K during Monday’s crash. You should’ve positioned yourself weeks ago. If you didn’t, people should watch out for scam wicks, there will be 100% manipulations on both sides, crushing both sides. If we see a 0.50% cut, expect short-term panic, especially with Israel possibly invading southern Lebanon. The pieces are lining up. Short-term panic is a high probability, but for the mid- and long-term, I remain bullish through Q3 2025. This chaos is an opportunity for us to buy more when fear peaks, but for now its holding the longs and spots.

Strategy for the Short Term: Manage Your Risk

In the short term, I expect Bitcoin and stocks to face pressure with a 0.50% rate cut. Add the potential Israel-Lebanon conflict, and markets could move more into more fear. The Fed will use this panic as cover, framing it as a reaction to geopolitical risks. From now until month’s end, my risk management is at its highest. That means all my spot holdings and longs are protected with stop-losses set at entry. I can't remember when I’ve been this cautious, people should take it very seriously. My strategy is simple: if the rate cut triggers a market pump, I’ll ride the wave with my existing positions. If we see a dump, my stop-losses will protect me at entry, no profit, no loss. This is about surviving unpredictable days like these. You don’t always need to predict the next move, but you do need a solid plan in days like these. Surprises are coming, and a strong strategy will maximize gains while minimizing risk. There are always people that are managing six- or seven-figure portfolios, it’s HIGHLY IMPORTANT to have risk management adjusted up to the highest level right now. In these volatile days, protecting your capital should be your priority. While I remain fully bullish on the mid- to long-term outlook, the short term is a waiting game. You know how emotional this market can get and how quickly things can swing.

In the mid-term, any panic will be silenced by the inevitable flood of money printing. I shared with you a report about USDT for example and the $18bn that was printed in the last few months, on top of that the billions of cash that will be injected into the markets for Q4 2024 from FTx. Once the rate cuts are done, you can be sure the money printers will go back to life. Give it a few months, and Jerome Powell will have to pull the trigger on that again.

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