Supply and demand zones don't work 100% of the time. However, understanding why they fail can significantly increase your win rate. Here are two crucial factors to watch out for:
1. Time in the Zone⏰
- Rule of Thumb: The longer price lingers in a zone, the higher the probability that the zone will fail.
- Quick Reactions are Key: You want the price to react quickly and instantly when it touches a supply or demand zone. Consolidation in a zone often signals a potential breakdown.
- Example - $RIVN:
- Price wicked into demand and immediately reversed, showing a strong bounce.
- Example - $CAT:
- Price hit demand and then consolidated for three days with no bounce. Eventually, demand broke, and the price moved lower.
Takeaway:
If price doesn’t quickly bounce out of the zone, the strength of that zone is questionable.
2. Depth of Price Penetration📉
- Depth Matters: Ideally, price should bounce off the edges of a zone. If price moves too deep into a zone, the probability of the zone holding decreases.
- Example - $AMD:
- Price dropped all the way to the bottom of a demand zone, indicating weakness. This led to the price breaking the demand and moving lower.
- Example - $PYPL:
- Price tapped the supply zone and reversed almost instantly, without penetrating too deep into the zone.
Takeaway:
If the price goes deep into the zone, it doesn’t necessarily mean the zone will fail, but the likelihood of it holding decreases.
📈 How to Apply These Concepts to Your Trading:
- Set Time-Based Rules:
- If you’re trading daily supply/demand zones, and the price stays in the zone for more than three days, consider exiting the trade.
- Monitor Depth:
- Be cautious if the price approaches the far edge of a zone. The deeper the price goes, the weaker the zone becomes.
🔑 Summary:
1. Time: The longer price stays in a zone, the less likely it will hold.
2. Depth: The deeper price taps into a zone, the lower the chances of the zone holding.
3. Add Rules: Implementing time-based and depth-based rules can increase your win rate.
Remember, these aren’t the only ways to determine if a zone will fail, but they are valuable tools to help you manage your trades more effectively. 🚀