Analysts: The end of the yield curve inversion signals the true arrival of the economic recession.
According to Odaily, financial website Forexlive analyst Adam Button stated that since 1955, the inverted yield curve has had a good record in predicting a US economic recession. However, it is not the inversion of the yield curve that truly signals an impending recession, but rather when the curve normalizes. We won't see a recession until the data shows it, but the market will certainly be contracting. Besides the slope of the curve, the 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen by 20 basis points, nominally 170 basis points lower than the Federal Reserve's fund rate, which would not happen if the economy did not have real problems.
