The XRP market is set for a potential price boom between now and October, driven by key catalysts such as technical indicators, significant whale accumulation, and the nearing resolution of Ripple's legal battle with the SEC. These factors could propel the XRP/USD pair to finally reach or surpass $1, a level not seen since 2021.
Technical Indicators Suggest Imminent Breakout
XRP’s weekly chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern forming since early 2018, characterized by converging trendlines compressing price action. The cryptocurrency is testing the pattern’s upper trendline resistance, aiming for a breakout that could push it toward the next major resistance level around $1 in the coming months. To achieve this, XRP needs to surpass $0.86, approximately 45% above current prices, a level that has historically posed significant resistance, notably in January–March 2022 and July 2023.
Supporting this bullish outlook, the weekly chart’s relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding from the 50 level, indicating increasing buying momentum. Additionally, the volume profile shows rising trading activity, often a precursor to sustained price movement.
Whale Accumulation Signals Bullish Sentiment
On-chain data from Santiment indicates that most XRP whale cohorts have been accumulating the token in recent weeks. The richest cohort, those holding over 1 billion XRP, has increased its holdings to 41.44% from 40.27% in 2024. This corresponds with a slight dip in the 100 million–1 billion XRP balance cohort.
Other whale cohorts, particularly those holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP, have also shown increased accumulation. Such activity among high-value investors is often a bullish signal, as large holders typically increase their stakes when they anticipate higher future prices and leverage their market influence to facilitate this.
Ripple vs. SEC Legal Battle Nears Conclusion
The long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing its end. In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on digital asset exchanges, marking a partial victory for Ripple. However, XRP is still considered a security when sold to institutional investors under the Howey test.
A recent meeting between Ripple and the SEC has been rescheduled to July 25, 2024, to discuss potential settlements. Analysts believe that a favorable settlement could significantly boost XRP’s price. Additionally, the potential approval of an XRP spot ETF is expected to drive further market interest and price increases.
Despite these positive indicators, some legal experts remain cautious. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a settlement, suggesting that the case might continue through the legal process. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remains optimistic, expecting a resolution before the end of summer 2024.
With these factors in play, XRP is well-positioned for a potential price surge in the coming months, possibly reclaiming the $1 mark it hasn't seen since 2021.
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