According to Cointelegraph: A Trump presidency could spell disaster for Gary Gensler's role as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. Thielen predicts that Gensler will likely resign within the first two months of 2025, following President Joe Biden's exit from the White House.

In a market report released on July 21, Thielen noted that the SEC chair typically resigns when a new administration enters the White House. He added that Biden’s sudden decision to abandon his re-election bid increases the likelihood of Donald Trump being sworn in as president in January 2025, which would be detrimental to Gensler’s position.

Political Shifts and Market Implications

Thielen wrote, “With Joe Biden dropping out of the US Presidential race, no credible candidate can seriously challenge Donald Trump. The November election appears to have been decided without a single vote. For Bitcoin, a pro-crypto administration will enter the White House.” Despite Gensler’s term ending on June 5, 2026, Thielen anticipates his resignation by January or February 2025.

Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, has been critical of Gensler, calling him the “worst person” to regulate crypto assets and accusing him of having a backward and overly politicized approach to crypto policy.

Bullish Catalysts for Crypto

Thielen also pointed out several bullish catalysts for the crypto market in the coming weeks. He mentioned “multiple reports and rumors” suggesting that Trump might make a surprise announcement at the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 25, potentially declaring Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This announcement could trigger a significant rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Historically, Bitcoin has traded higher after breaking previous bull market all-time highs. Source: 10x Research

Market Outlook

Thielen advised investors against taking profits or shorting BTC before Trump’s speech, indicating that Bitcoin’s previous bull market all-time high of $68,300 could be a crucial level to watch. Several analysts believe that despite the current political turmoil in the US, the outlook for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market remains promising.

Recent market disruptions caused by forced selling from the German government and creditor repayments by the collapsed crypto exchange Mt. Gox are viewed as being in the rearview mirror. Analysts suggest that the worst of Bitcoin’s recent price action has passed, setting the stage for potential growth.