◻️ Analysis of Bitcoin's Realized Price and Future Trends: Historical Insights and Predictions .

◽️Summary of the Chart:

• Actual Bitcoin Price: Shown as a colored series indicating the price of Bitcoin over the years, with colors representing the number of days until the next halving.

• Realized Price: Shown as a yellow line representing the average price at which Bitcoin was last moved on the network.

• Realized Price Oscillator: Shown as gray dots indicating the ratio of the actual price to the realized price, with a red line at level 1 indicating when the actual price equals the realized price.

◽️ Expected Trend:

Based on historical data, we can expect:

• Price Increases After Halving: Historically, Bitcoin has seen significant price increases after halving periods, indicating an upward trend post-halving.

• Support from Realized Price: The realized price acts as strong support, and when the actual price is below it, it can indicate a buying opportunity.

Comparison to Previous Periods:

1. 2011-2013 (305 days below realized price):

• Long accumulation period before a significant rise.

2. 2015-2016 (410 days below realized price):

• Similar accumulation period followed by a strong rise.

3. 2018 (134 days below realized price):

• Quick correction before resuming the upward trend.

4. 2019-2020 (220 days below realized price):

• Another accumulation period before a post-halving rise.

◽️ Current Trend:

• As the next halving approaches, relying on historical trends, a rise in Bitcoin’s price can be expected post-halving.

• The realized price remains a key support level to watch for identifying good buying opportunities during corrections.

In summary, the expected trend for Bitcoin is upward post-halving, and the realized price should be monitored as a key support during correction periods.

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