I know, it's unbelievable, but SPX has the very strong long setup. I don't know how it is gonna happen becuase there are a lot of bad news.

Technically we have the broken head & shoulders pattern. It's not so beautiful pattern, but the main rule: head below both sholders is respected.

Morever we have seen the retest of the broken neckline, therefore the potential target is the head's height, which perfectly coinsides with the $4700.

Chart 1. SPX chart.

Best regards, Ivan

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Analyzing S&P500 price chart is so important to make the predictions in crypto. As you know Bitcoin has a high correlation with traditional markets and has it's own path only if the negative fundamentals happen on the one side.

Let's take a look at the S&P 500 price chart. I suppose now we can see the corrective wave B is in progress. It has the target at 0.61 Fibonacci retracement of the wave A. It means that it's almost over and next half of a year is gonna be extremely bearish. I don't know which events can influence on that, but I consider we will see $3200 for SPX this year.

I also have a good news that it's not the true bear market like it was in 2001 and 2008. If we take a look at the wave A structure it has multiple waves overlaps. It means it's not the wave 1 - impulsive one, but wave A - corrective. All bearish impulses start with the impulsive wave and it's not our case. I consider that 2024 is gonna be the start of the massive bull run on all markets.

Chart 1. ES! chart.

Best regards, Ivan

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⬆️ The Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 5.25%

The Fed will continue to further reduce the balance sheet under the plan. (This should have a negative impact on the markets).

The Fed has removed the signal about the need for further rate hikes, but does not give clear hints of a pause. He also notes that today no decision was made to pause. But, nevertheless, it hints that it is possible that the cycle of increase is already over.

FED is sending a signal that it is not going to lower the rate yet, it wants to keep it at a high level for some time.

FED again does not want to talk too much about the recession.

FED says banks are strong and the US economy will not let you down 🤡

Powell says it's important to raise the debt ceiling, but not just raise it, raise it on time.

Comment from our team:

At the moment, the rate was raised to levels of 2007, which was later, you all know very well… Now there is a whole combination of factors for the market to fall.

However, there is enough liquidity in the market that has been created over the period from 20-21, so the markets cannot collapse, as a huge amount of money buys out drawdowns, since inflation, although it has slowed down, continues to grow from month to month.

📉 We are negatively looking at Sp500 in the medium term.

The decline in revenue and profits of companies due to the recession will have a negative impact on EPS. Buybacks, which have been a major driver of stock growth in recent years, could be hit by rising taxes.

❓ For Bitcoin, the situation is very uncertain.

In history, $BTC has not yet gone through a recession. But we believe that eventually bank failures will lead to a large flow of funds from private investors to Bitcoin, which will lead to its growth. But sharp drawdowns cannot be ruled out.

📈 Looking positively at gold.

It is currently trading at 3-year highs. The level of $2000 has already acted as resistance three times, but today we see how gold has broken through this mark. In the near future we can see a sharp increase in this asset. Any drawdown in gold is recommended to be aggressively buy $PAXG .

We have already given ideas for Bitcoin and Gold, if you are interested in getting more profitable ideas - take a look at the profile header 🎩

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The main US index has a significant impact on the dynamics of markets around the world, so its very important to keep an eye on it 👀

The forecast for Sp500 that we gave a month ago in our club is partially being implemented. We still dont rule out a final upward momentum of index to collect stops of shorts-guys. But in the short term, all the factors for the fall of the index.

⚙️ According to the technical analysis, Sp500 rests on a strong resistance of 4200p. For more than a year, the index has not been able to break through this level. Immediate support around 4000p., where the upper limit of the medium-term falling channel passes.

The global economy is in a recessionary cycle, which means that in the coming quarters one should not expect growth in revenues and profits of companies.

🖐️ On the one hand, high inflation prevents central banks from lowering rates.

👋 But on the other hand, the situation with bank failures forces the Fed to inject hundreds of billions to save them.

🔰 Outcome:

In the short term, we expect the Sp500 index to drop to 4000p, and then lower.

In the medium to long term, the index will inevitably rise as central banks continue to print trillions to support/rescue the financial system.

We recommend to be in assets by no more than 50% of the portfolio. This year we will definitely see lower prices, so it is extremely important to have a cash to buy additional assets.

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