2023, week 11

[Close] - Trend Status Analysis by PresentTrading

The market is uncertain. USD index is fluctuating around 6.9.

Keep moving. Keep watching.

Gluck. Please do risk control.

--Summary --

Total Closed Trades 34

Winning rate 76.47%

'Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.'

by PresentTrading



USD/ CNY 3D candle w/ backtesting result

#market #USDT #forex

#backtesting #presentTrading

Backtesting of trading indicators is necessary because the results displayed by indicators may not match real-life situations.

Although Tradingview is one of the widely used trading platforms with a rich library of technical indicators, some of these indicators may have issues with "peeking into the future." Conducting backtesting is also essential to avoid "future function" problems.

Two common problems related to "peeking into the future" include:

Using future data in the calculation of indicators, such as using the opening price.

Setting parameters incorrectly during backtesting and testing, may cause the buy signal to be moved by one candlestick.

Therefore, through backtesting, we can ensure that our trading strategies and indicators are reliable.

---

Below is a case that illustrates the importance of backtesting trading indicators. The chart shows a strategy I created based on the trendy indicator called "Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification" on Tradingview.

As seen in the chart, the backtesting results and the signals provided by the indicator have significant differences. The indicator may display a green or red signal to indicate buy or sell, respectively, but it is only valid for the next candlestick, which could be due to problem 2.

Key takeaway - Backtesting of trading indicators is necessary to verify their reliability and avoid future function problems.

#educational #trading #investing #presentTrading #dyor

BTC 2hr chart with the indicator and the strategy I coded.

2023, week 10

HSI: [Long Clsoe] at 19,821

BTC: [Short]x2 , [Clsoe] x1

According to the latest market update, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is still in a downward trend, with a current long close at 19,821 points.

As for Bitcoin ($BTC ), although it has rebounded recently, it still remains in a bearish trend.



Keep an eye on the market, and be patient.

Staying informed about the latest trends.

Good luck and happy trading. - PresentTrading

HSI status, 3D chart

BTC status, 4H 8H 1D

#HSI #BTC #marketupdate

#crypto2023 #presentTrading

by PresentTrading

#BTC #presentTrading

BTC 4hr chart

The VPVR (righthand side) is a price and time analysis tool based on trading volume, which can be used to identify areas of high trading activity.

The reversal finder is a tool used to find potential trend reversals.

The MSB-OB (horizontal green/red bar) is a bull/bear strength indicator that can be used to identify support and resistance levels.

2023, week 12

HSI:  [Long Clsoe] at 19821

BTC:   [Long]x2  , [Clsoe]  x1

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is still not in an upward trend, with a current long close at 19,821 points. 

As for Bitcoin ($BTC ), it remains 4hr and 8hr bullish trend. 

Keep an eye on the market, and be patient. 

Staying informed about the latest trends.

Good luck and happy trading.  - PresentTrading

HSI 3D chart

BTC status, 4H 8H 1D

#HSI

#BTC

#marketupdate

#crypto2023

#presentTrading

by PresentTrading

2023, week 10

[Close] - Trend Status Analysis by PresentTrading



USD index is fluctuating around 6.9.

The risk market is uncertain.

Keep moving. Keep watching.

Gluck. Please do risk control.

--Summary --

Total Closed Trades 34

Winning rate 76.47%

'Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.'

by PresentTrading



#market #USDT #forex #backtesting

#presentTrading



USD/ CNY 3D candle w/ backtesting result

#ETH #presentTrading

ETH 4hr chart

The VPVR (righthand side) is a price and time analysis tool based on trading volume, which can be used to identify areas of high trading activity.

The reversal finder (green/red dot next to candles) is a tool used to find potential trend reversals.

The MSB-OB (horizontal green/red bar) is a bull/bear strength indicator that can be used to identify support and resistance levels.

2023, week 11

HSI:  [Long Clsoe] at 19821

BTC:   [Long]x2  , [Clsoe]  x1

According to the latest market update, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is still in a downward trend, with a current long close at 19,821 points. 

As for Bitcoin ($BTC ), it has rebounded recently, and it remains 4hr and 8hr bullish trend. 

Keep an eye on the market, and be patient. 

Staying informed about the latest trends.

Good luck and happy trading.  - PresentTrading

HSI 3D chart

BTC status, 4H 8H 1D

#HSI #BTC #marketupdate

#crypto2023

#presentTrading



by PresentTrading

Trend Status:

[Bullish] - by PresentTrading

Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.

Good luck.

The 9-yr backtesting results:

-- Summary --

Winning rate 39.22%

Sortino Ratio 3.307

Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss 8.255

-PresentTrading

#XRP #BTC #crypto2023 #trendtrading #presentTrading

XRP/BTC 12hr chart

Current trends:

DXY downtrend

US02Y stopped its upward trend

US10Y downtrend

(Backtest graph below)

#market #economy #presentTrading #crypto2023

Impact on the market

1. DXY downtrend leads to a weaker USD, which can make US assets more attractive to foreign investors, potentially increasing demand for risk markets.

2. Lower interest rates lower borrowing costs for businesses, which could increase investment and growth, potentially driving up prices in the risk market.

The halt in the upward trend of the US02Y (2-year treasury yield) suggests that the market is less concerned about short-term inflation expectations and more willing to invest in higher-risk assets. The US10Y is a long-term expectation.

How does this impact the crypto market?

-> It's a positive to risk market.

Weaker USD and lower interest rates can lead investors to seek higher-risk investments, including crypto.

"Loss small, win big." #presentTrading

NFA

DXY

US 10Y

US 02Y

[Close] - Trend Status Analysis by PresentTrading

USDT Up only? it seems DXY is going to dominate Forex again in short term.

Keep moving.

Keep watching.

-- Summary --

Total Closed Trades 34

Winning rate 76.47%

Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.

Gluck. Please do risk control.

#market #USDT #forex #backtesting

#presentTrading

USD/ CNY 3D candle w/ backtesting result

2023, week 12

[Close] - Trend Status Analysis by PresentTrading

Keep moving. Keep watching.

As what I predicted, the market is uncertain. USD index is fluctuating around 6.9.

No clear direction.

Gluck. Please do risk control.

--Summary --

Total Closed Trades 34

Winning rate 76.47%

'Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.'

by PresentTrading

USD/ CNY 3D candle w/ backtesting result

#market #USDT #forex

#backtesting #presentTrading

Why do we need to Keep a Trading Journal? - PresentTrading

"Assuming a 40% success rate in your trades, with a profit of $2 and a loss of $1, should you engage in trading? "

The answer lies in evaluating your trading system using the winning rate, profit factor, and Kelly Criterion.

The winning rate measures the percentage of winning trades. For instance, in 100 trades, 40 were profitable, and 60 were losing. Although a trading system can generate a significant number of losing trades, it does not invalidate its effectiveness.

Increasing the winning rate is not helpful. The key is to ensure that the losses do not exceed the profits.

The profit factor is the ratio between the expected profit and expected loss per trade. By keeping a trading journal, you can determine your average profit and loss amounts to calculate the profit factor.

The Kelly Criterion is a tool that helps determine the percentage of capital to allocate to each investment to limit losses and maximize long-term gains. The Kelly percentage to invest = (winning rate (%) - (losing rate (%) / profit factor)).

Take home message - PresentTrading

Therefore, before making a trading decision, evaluate your trading system by analyzing the profit factor, Kelly Criterion, and winning rate using objective data and backtesting to make informed trading decisions.

In conclusion, to be a successful trader, you should evaluate your trading system and strategies using data, and make logical and objective trading decisions.

#Educational #investing #presentTrading #trading

#ETH #presentTrading

ETH 4hr chart

The VPVR (righthand side) is a price and time analysis tool based on trading volume, which can be used to identify areas of high trading activity.

The reversal finder (green/red dot next to candles) is a tool used to find potential trend reversals.

The MSB-OB (horizontal green/red bar) is a bull/bear strength indicator that can be used to identify support and resistance levels.

2023, week 123

HSI:  [Long Clsoe] at 19821

BTC:   [Long]x2  , [Clsoe]  x1

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is still not in an upward trend, with a current long close at 19,821 points. 

As for Bitcoin ($BTC ), it remains 4hr and 8hr bullish trend. 

Keep an eye on the market, and be patient. 

Staying informed about the latest trends.

Good luck and happy trading.  - PresentTrading

HSI 3D chart

BTC status, 4H 8H 1D

#HSI #BTC #marketupdate #crypto2023 #presentTrading

by PresentTrading

Check out the support and resistance levels on a 4-hour chart

Support (Green)

Resistant (Red)

It's always important to use multiple indicators and analysis techniques to validate and confirm any potential levels.

'Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.'

by presentTrading

#BTC #crypto2023 #presentTrading #chart

BTC 4h chart

#BTC #presentTrading

BTC 4hr chart

The VPVR (righthand side) is a price and time analysis tool based on trading volume, which can be used to identify areas of high trading activity.

The reversal finder is a tool used to find potential trend reversals.

The MSB-OB (horizontal green/red bar) is a bull/bear strength indicator that can be used to identify support and resistance levels.

2023, week 14

HSI:  [Long Clsoe] at 19821

BTC:   [Long]x2  , [Clsoe]  x1

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is still not in an upward trend, with a current long close at 19,821 points. 

As for Bitcoin ($BTC ), it remains 4hr and 8hr bullish trend. 

Keep an eye on the market, and be patient. 

Staying informed about the latest trends.

Good luck and happy trading.  - PresentTrading

HSI 3D chart

BTC status, 4H 8H 1D

#HSI #BTC #marketupdate #crypto2023 #presentTrading

#BTC #crypto2023 #presentTrading

BTC 4hr chart

The VPVR (righthand side) is a price and time analysis tool based on trading volume, which can be used to identify areas of high trading activity.

The Reversal Finder is a tool used to find potential trend reversals.

The MSB-OB (horizontal green/red bar) is a bull/bear strength indicator that can be used to identify support and resistance levels.

#BTC #presentTrading

BTC 4hr chart

The VPVR (righthand side) is a price and time analysis tool based on trading volume, which can be used to identify areas of high trading activity.

The Reversal Finder is a tool used to find potential trend reversals.

The MSB-OB (horizontal green/red bar) is a bull/bear strength indicator that can be used to identify support and resistance levels.