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OpenAI Projects $11.6 Billion in Revenue for 2025, Offering Exclusive Investment Opportunity for Thrive Capital
Thrive Capital is making a significant move by investing over $1 billion in OpenAI’s current $6.5 billion funding round, with an enticing bonus: the chance to invest an additional $1 billion next year at the same valuation, provided OpenAI meets a set revenue target, according to sources familiar with the situation.
OpenAI anticipates that its revenue will soar to $11.6 billion in 2025, a sharp increase from its estimated $3.7 billion in 2024, said sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. However, the company is also expected to report losses of up to $5 billion this year, largely due to the significant costs associated with computing power, though that figure could fluctuate based on expenses, one source noted.
The current funding round, structured as convertible debt, is expected to close by next week and could position OpenAI with a valuation of $150 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies worldwide.
This valuation is contingent upon a complex restructuring that would remove the non-profit board’s control and eliminate the cap on investor returns, as initially reported by Reuters. No definitive timeline has been set for when this conversion process will be finalized.
Thrive Capital, which led OpenAI’s previous fundraising round, is contributing $1.2 billion in total—sourced from both its main fund and a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for smaller investors. Other key players in this funding round include Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Khosla Ventures.
However, unlike Thrive, the other investors do not have the opportunity to make a future investment at the current price point, according to the sources. With OpenAI’s valuation rising rapidly, Thrive may find itself in an advantageous position to expand its stake next year at a lower-than-expected cost.
Details regarding the revenue target that unlocks this future investment option for Thrive remain undisclosed, and both Open-AI and Thrive declined to provide comments on the matter.
OpenAI’s revenue projections for the coming years significantly exceed earlier forecasts by CEO Sam Altman, who had predicted $1 billion in revenue for this year. The company’s main revenue streams come from its corporate services and subscriptions for its chatbot product.
ChatGPT, OpenAI’s flagship service, is expected to generate $2.7 billion in revenue this year, a dramatic increase from the $700 million it earned in 2023. The chatbot, which charges users $20 per month, has amassed a paying user base of roughly 10 million.
The financial details and Thrive Capital’s additional investment option were first reported by The New York Times on Friday.