LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

U.S. GDP has increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, higher than the expected 2%U.S. PCE increased 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, matching expectations. Core PCE increased 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY, lower than the expected 3% YoYChina’s central bank announced 50 bps cut in bank reserves, freeing $140B in liquiditySEC has delayed decisions on spot $ETH ETF. The next key date is in May according to Bloomberg analyst James SeyffartGrayscale has transferred nearly 113K to exchanges for potential selling since the spot $BTC ETF approvalTesla’s BTC holding remained unchanged in Q4Curve Finance announced the launch of the lending market, LlamaLend, which will utilize crvUSD
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible movement. #DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range. It did see some upward movement within the range. This can put some pressure on stocks/crypto especially as indexes are trading near all-time highs.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

#VIX is starting to build a floor level around 13-14. Together with oil seeing some strength last week, it makes sense that VIX starts trading a bit stronger if the oil and dollar garner more strength.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is still at the top of the macro range quite impressively under 40k. For now, it seems more likely that BTC will range/chop at these prices for a while instead of a straight liquidation cascade down.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH lost a ton of relative strength last week and is now back in a ranging area between 2.1-2.4k. Also, the alt market is trading in tandem with ETH/BTC strength/weakness.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC reversed quite a bit since the ETF rotation rally. However, if there was ever a moment where ETH/BTC should catch a bid, it should be right here. We think if ETH/BTC bleeds down any further it’s probably gonna correct down a lot more as this range has now been building for almost 3 years.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts have retraced quite a bit. But from a macro perspective, it’s still totally fine with price building more and more structure above the 2023 resistance. Last week, we had our first actual test of the 2023 resistance, and this got absorbed well.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

No visible movement. As mentioned last week, if ALT/BTC would stay in range and ETH stalls, it would likely not be good for alts. A lot of them are down quite a bit with no real show of strength at the moment. This will likely stay the same until we get that volatility expansion on BTC.
SUMMARY
BTC selling got absorbed quite aggressively under 40k. This should give it room to range further in the 40k area. And in tandem, this should give alts more time to put in some decent rallies if ETH/BTC can pick up relative strength again.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.
#crypto2023 #cryptocurrency #bitcoin

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

Ethereum's Dencun upgrade launched on Goerli testnet after initial delays.#Metamask launched staking service to allow users to run $ETH node.Binance’s new launchpool project $MANTA Network experienced a 'DDoS' attack during exchange listing.#dYdX surpassed Uniswap as the largest DEX in volume.Blast, launched by the founder of Blur, announced testnet is live.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

#DXY is still within the larger range 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range. It did see some upward movement within the range. This can put some pressure on stocks/crypto especially as indexes are trading near all-time highs.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

#VIX is still in a slumber for now. This will keep correlations low between asset classes.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC is still at the top of the macro range between 45-30k. From a technical point of view, it seems more and more likely that BTC will reach mid 30’s at this rate. The longer BTC keeps ranging under resistance, the more altcoins will bleed in anticipation of increased volatility on BTC.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH/BTC has been stale ever since the initial ETF approval rotation. With BTC looking more and more like it's breaking down at the top of the range, it would be optimal for ETH/BTC to continue its trend and push through. This could give enough relative strength for ETH/USD to rally towards 2.8-3.2k.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC should pick up the trend soon, or else it would become more and more likely to bleed out again the entire rotation from the ETF approval.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

Alts have retraced quite a bit. But from a macro perspective, it’s still totally fine with price building more and more structure above the 2023 resistance. It will likely tap into that resistance (now support red zone) when/if BTC taps into the mid-30s. This would likely be one of the last good macro entry points into altcoins for the typical crypto cycle.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

As mentioned last week, if ALT/BTC would stay in range and ETH stalls, it would likely not be good for alts. A lot of them are down quite a bit with no real show of strength at the moment. This will likely stay the same until we get that volatility expansion on BTC.
SUMMARY
Market is in limbo until it sees BTC breaking down/up to lower or higher levels or ETH/BTC picking up more upside momentum.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products.

#CryptocurrencyMarketAnalysis #CryptoJourney2024

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

FED minutes showed FED officials see upside risk in inflation which may lead to more hikes.

Wall Street Journal reported SpaceX wrote down their BTC holdings in 2021 and 2022.

The crypto market experienced large liquidation exceeding $1B, the biggest liquidation since FTX's bankruptcy.

Bloomberg reported SEC is expected to approve ETH's future ETF by October.

OpenSea will make the creator royalty fee optional.

Shiba Inu’s layer 2 network: Shibarium, went live but encountered bridge issues.

LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still within the same range, with a noticeable slowdown last week. DXY likely stays range-bound as the market awaits more inflation data. At this point, it is primarily seeking if there’s an actual turning point in the downward inflation trend.

LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

Last week, we mentioned the #VIX likely staying elevated going into NVDA earnings, as this has been the market leader since the start of the year. It may, however, prove the pivot point for the current market correction.

BTC WEEKLY VIEW

As mentioned last week, and the week before, we expected a pick up in volatility in August, which resulted in a pretty hefty correction in BTC and ETH. For now, if BTC does not instantly reverse, we will likely see another couple of weeks/months of low volatility sideways chop.

ETH WEEKLY VIEW

Same as with BTC, ETH also saw a large drop, with deribit even dropping into the 1400s. Large liquidation in the current market has outsized moves because of the lower liquidity in the market. For now, it seems very likely that both ETH and BTC are in for more weeks/months of low volatility sideways price action.

ETH/BTC

$ETH /BTC gained some relative strength on the BTC drop. However still small and still only showing relative strength when BTC drops or moves slowly. For a real reversal, we’re looking for outsized movement of ETH relative to BTC without effects on BTC influencing its action.

TOTAL3 – USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 is still in range and a lot of altcoins have retraced quite a bit of their drop correlated with BTC. However, if this range breaks down, altcoins are looking at another heavy drop. For a more sustained upside, we’re still looking for the red zone to get broken.

TOTAL3/BTC – BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/$BTC is confirming what we saw, post BTC drop. It means that alts gained quite a bit of traction (especially the outperformers). For now, a lot of majors still seem stuck between a lot of price levels and a lack of innovation. Meanwhile, in low-cap land, there’s quite a lot of new stuff that is capturing market share rapidly.

SUMMARY

NVDA earnings are scheduled for the 23rd of August this week. NVDA has led the entire resurgence of equities this year. So a lot of eyes will be on their earnings. Equities have however been correcting for a while with some seeing fairly large drops. This could mean if NVDA has positive results that it is a pivot point for the market in general.

In the lower marketcap segment, a few things were popping up last week. PRIME (Token of parallel) did a clean 4x after game beta was well received showing some early positive signs for gaming-related tokens.

Friends.tech is also popping off, making it able to buy shares of your favorite influencer. With Faze Banks of Faze clan joining the platform on Sunday.

Crypto Options Update:

Sizeable vol moves last week across tradefi & crypto. Benign Jul-23 CPI data overshadowed by the Crypto ETF decision delay resulted in some chaotic moves most likely exacerbated by typical low liquidity summer months.

On Deribit we noted a significant temporary perp discount to spot - most likely due to Deribit option portfolio margin mechanics kicking in.

Prop-wise we are on the sidelines for now - waiting for Jackson Hole announcements later this week.

#crypto2023

DISCLAIMER:

The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products.

Read the full article at: https://kaironlabs.com/blog/

LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 353K in Jan, much better than the estimated 185K; the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimated 3.8%.Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% range, Powell said cut in March is not “base case”.Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade goes live on Sepolia testnet.FTX expects to pay crypto customers in full, and won’t restart due to a lack of buyers.Binance Web3 wallet launched Bitcoin inscriptions marketplace.Meta shares surged 20% due to soaring profit, better than the expected guidance and its first dividend.Genesis reached $21M settlement with SEC over the Gemini Earn program.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible movement. #DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range. It did see some upward movement within the range. This can put some pressure on weaker assets.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX, as mentioned last week, is also getting stronger together with the dollar. For assets that are trading strong, it’s not a real problem but crypto has become fairly flat after the ETF launches. If DXY and #VIX pick up further, it’s a reasonable assumption for BTC and thus, the crypto market sees lower prices in the near term, too.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC is still at the top of the macro range and keeps struggling at the 43-44k zone. The market is seeing a lot of alt derisking in anticipation of fresh BTC volatility coming in. For higher prices, the ideal scenario would be BTC flipping over 45k which would confirm further bullish upside. A dip into the mid-30s would also be a good opportunity.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

$ETH $is still trading in total limbo without any clear sign of relative strength. The altcoin market is at the moment tied to the strength of ETH/BTC ratio everytime this picked up a little altcoins showed more strength. For now, ETH/USD is still bullish as long as the market consolidates above the 2k region.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has still failed to find any sustained rally on larger time frames. At the moment, ETH/BTC is at a quite critical point; anymore downside and it basically retraces the entire ETF rotation trade, which likely leads to significantly lower prices for the ratio.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 just like ETH/USD is consolidating above resistance, which is usually good for a continuation move later on. This likely correlates with ETH if ETH can find relative strength over BTC.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is also still failing to break over the resistance of the range. When it finally does break we’ll likely see a more market-wide altcoin rally in the top 100 coins.
SUMMARY
Market is in limbo with BTC struggling at the last real point of resistance before all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETH can’t find its footing against BTC leading to altcoins seeing a ton of derisking.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.
#crypto2024 #cryptocurrency #bitcoin

LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in February v.s. 0.4% expected and 3.2% YoY v.s. 3.1% expected, core CPI rose 0.4% MoM v.s. 0.3% expected, and 3.8% YoY v.s. 3.7% expected.Ethereum's Dencun upgrade went live on Wednesday.Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas significantly drops the probability of an Ethereum spot ETF approval in May from 60-70% to 30%.MicroStrategy purchased another ~12K BTC and currently holding ~205K BTC averaged at $33,706. Binance announced its 49th project on launchpool: etherfi (ETHFI).London Stock Exchange will accept listing applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto ETNs in Q2 2024.Binance listed Solana-based meme coin BOME
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible change. DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned for now it likely keeps building more price structure within the range. The longer it stays within the range, the more upsides all risk assets have.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

#VIX is again seeing some strength. Last week, BTC felt the effects as it correlated very close to the SP500 weakness. This is likely due to ETF flows being dominated so far by traditional finance players.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC breached ATHs. With how fast the move into ATHs was, it’s quite likely that BTC will form some kind of range around the old ATH. This would give the broader market a chance to catch up (other than the obvious outliers..)
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

$ETH is also rallying. With the likely consolidation of BTC on ATH, ETH/BTC will likely fully rotate out from its current consolidation, which in tandem, should take ETH/USD towards ATHs.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC currently has a nice 5-month structure within the multi-year range. It seems quite likely that it will vacate this smaller range soon. With BTC stalling on ATHs, it’s more of a “when” rather than an "if" for ETH/BTC.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 saw a large breakout, mainly led by memes/AI/ L1’s. So far, the other part of the market is still fairly muted. Also, liquidity is still centered around a small basket of coins and not widely marketed yet.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still in the range. But it seems that with ETH/BTC starting to hold more and more, this will also rotate upwards within a reasonable timeframe.
SUMMARY
BTC likely to stall for a longer period on previous ATH. If there are no large drops during this consolidation, most altcoins should start playing catch-up.Meme coin frenzy on $SOL as it absorbs a lot of liquidity from the market.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK RECAP:
U.S. job number increased 275K in February v.s. 198K estimated. But the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% compared to 3.7% estimated.European Central Bank holds the interest rate, but lowered its annual inflation forecast and hinted at a cut in June.Powell said interest rate ‘likely at its peak’.$BTC reached a new ATH above $69K before volatility came in.SEC further delayed its decision on BlackRock and Fidelity’s $ETH ETF applications as expected.Grayscale introduced a crypto staking fund that initially includes APT, TIA, CBETH, ATOM, NEAR, OSMO, DOT, SEI, and SOL
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible change. #DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned for now it likely keeps building more price structure within the range. The longer it stays within the range, the more risk assets have an upside, especially in tech stocks and crypto.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

#VIX is again seeing some strength. Markets are getting a bit unstable with how parabolic a lot of major names are (NVDA, BTC, ETH …). If this gains any more strength, it's relatively likely for the market to slow down quite a bit.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC made new ATHs and is pushing over 70k without any sort of euphoria or large media attention. It does seem that the crypto market is at the inflection point where real retail will start showing up.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH is also rallying. What’s most impressive at this point is that ETH/BTC is clearly holding its relative value against the BTC ETF flows.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC has a nice 5-month structure within the multi-year range now. It seems quite likely that it will vacate this smaller range soon. If it breaks upwards, it’ll rally fairly quickly to the .08 mark and hopefully finally break out of the multi-year range.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 saw a large breakout, mainly led by memes/AI/L1s. A lot of majors are still flat though so there’s lots of upside on that front.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still in the range. But it seems with ETH/BTC starting to hold more and more that this will also rotate upwards within a reasonable timeframe.
SUMMARY
BTC is near all-time highs while meme coins are on a market-wide BTC hits new ATHs. Meanwhile, AI/MEMEs/Gaming are dominating the altmarket. However, in the midcap region still a lot of coins aren’t really moving as mainly large caps and small caps are making the moves.
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell digital assets or other financial products.

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

The U.S. headline PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, both as expected. The U.S. Core PCE increased 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, also the same as expected.MicroStrategy purchased another 3,000 BTC for ~$155 million averaged at $51,813. Total holding is now 193,000 BTC averaged at $31,544.Bank of America’s Merrill and Wells Fargo will offer BTC ETF for Clients.BlackRock’s BTC ETF crossed $10 billion in AUM.Frax Finance plans to publish proposed revenue sharing within 10 days.Blast Mainnet is live.Telegram will reward channel owners 50% of ad revenue, with payments made in Toncoin.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned for now it likely keeps building more price structure within the range. The longer it stays within the range, the more risk assets have an upside, especially in tech stocks and crypto.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

VIX is still failing any attempt at getting out of the lows (13-14 area). As long as that continues, there’s no real downside in the market. It’s something to keep an eye on with lots of AI stocks in parabolic and crypto meme coins also going parabolic.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

BTC is quite literally under “infinite bid” since the ETF. With prices near ATH’s, it doesn’t look like it will slow down as long as the ETF inflows keep up.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

ETH finally reached the 3.5K area. With ETH/BTC still being heavily compressed but holding up against the accelerated BTC move, it’s likely that ETH also goes for ATH’s as soon as the ETH ETF narrative picks up more steam and ETH/BTC gains some ground on BTC again.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still failing every reversal attempt due to the sheer strength that BTC is seeing. Once BTC slows down, the ETH/BTC reversal will likely aid in the ETH/USD ATH rally.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 saw a large breakout, mainly and surprisingly led by meme coins. At the moment, all meme coin rallies are sucking all the liquidity out of the other alts.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still in the range and surprisingly hasn’t really moved even though some altcoins have seen large parabolic movements.
SUMMARY
BTC is near all-time highs while meme coins are on a market-wide parabolic run.At the moment, meme coins are sucking up most of the liquidity, letting other altcoins run dry. When/if meme coins consolidate, a lot of other alts will likely play catch-up given that BTC doesn’t see large corrections.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products.

#CryptocurrencyMarketAnalysis #CryptoJourney2024

LAST WEEK'S RECAP:

U.S. CPI rose 0.3% MoM in Jan v.s. estimated 0.2% and 3.1% YoY v.s. estimated 2.9%. Core CPI increased 0.4% MoM in Jan v.s. estimated 0.3% and 3.9% YoY v.s. estimated 3.7%.U.S. PPI increased 0.3% in Jan v.s. estimated 0.1%, showing persistent inflation.Coinbase stock jumped on big earnings beat as transaction volume grows.Starknet Foundation announced the STRK token will be airdropped on Feb 20th.Uniswap V4 will likely be launched in Q3 following Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade.Yuga Labs acquired Moonbirds NFT startup Proof.Filecoin announced integration with Solana.Aptos Foundation collaborated with Jambo to Introduce JamboPhone.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY

No visible movement. #DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range. The longer it stays within the range the more confidence market participants will have to get more and more risk exposure.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX

#VIX is still muted other than a spike last week.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW

$BTC is currently at mid-range (45k-58k), which could pose as short-term resistance. With Genesis getting the green light to liquidate their GBTC holdings, this could neutralize the net inflows for the week. On the positive side, this would greenlight ALT/BTC ratios to run.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW

$ETH is finally gearing up. After a strong weekly close, it’s clear skies up until 3.5k.
ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC is still on the lower end of the range. But on the lower timeframes, it has started forming a small uptrend. With our view on BTC/USD and ETH/USD, it makes sense for ETH/BTC to pick up towards .067 in the coming weeks.
TOTAL3 USD MARKET STRENGTH

TOTAL3 broke recent highs. From a macro perspective, the 500B mark to - 1.1T can be seen as a large range. So the first upside target for the altcoin market in total would be 1.1T. This would obviously lead to gigantic rallies across the board.
TOTAL3 BTC MARKET STRENGTH

ALT/BTC is still in the range. It’s still on the weak side but there have been some positive signs. With mainly AI and gaming coins building some relative strength.
SUMMARY
AI and Gaming projects lead the way for altcoins.ETH is finally showing relative strength in ETH/BTC ratio. Indicating BTC could be slowing down after weeks of underperformance.

DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products.

#CryptocurrencyMarketAnalysis #CryptoJourney2024