Turkey's economy has been on a wild ride, with inflation soaring to dizzying heights and the money supply expanding at an unprecedented rate. Let's dive into the factors behind these dramatic changes and their implications for the country's financial landscape.
Money Printer Goes Brrr
Imagine if the amount of money in your country quadrupled in just three years. Sounds like something out of a economics textbook, right? Well, that's exactly what happened in Turkey. Here are the eye-popping numbers:
Q4 2021: 1.47 trillion Turkish Lira (TL) in circulation2024: 6.03 trillion TL in circulation
That's a fourfold increase! But what sparked this monetary explosion?
Interest Rate Rollercoaster
The story begins in late 2021 when the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decided to take a rather unconventional approach: cutting interest rates despite rising inflation. It's like trying to put out a fire with gasoline – it might look impressive for a moment, but the consequences can be dire.
This decision flooded the market with cheap money, leading to:
Increased liquidityBoosted demandA perfect storm for inflation
Inflation: The Unwelcome Guest That Overstayed
While inflation had been creeping up since 2018, it really took off after 2021. Here's a quick timeline:
Q4 2021: 19% inflationQ4 2022: 85.5% inflation (yikes!)August 2024: 52% inflation
That's quite the rollercoaster ride for Turkish consumers and businesses!
Money Supply 101
For those who dozed off during economics class, here's a quick refresher: Money supply is essentially the total amount of money floating around in an economy. The most basic measure, called M1, includes:
Cash in circulationDemand deposits (like checking accounts)
In Turkey's case, the M1 money supply skyrocketed from 1.47 trillion TL in September 2021 to 6.03 trillion TL by 2024. That's a lot of extra lira sloshing around the economy!
Inflation-Money Supply Tango
Here's where things get interesting. When you dramatically increase the money supply, you're essentially diluting the value of each unit of currency. It's like adding water to soup – you might have more liquid, but it's less flavorful.
The CBRT itself acknowledges this in its "Causes of Inflation" statement. More money in the system leads to:
Increased investment spendingHigher consumptionUpward pressure on prices
Add in Turkey's reliance on imports, and you've got a recipe for runaway inflation.

#Turkey #türkiye #TurkishLira #TurkeyMoneySupply #inflation

In recent years, Turkey has been making waves in the international community with its interest in joining BRICS, an economic alliance originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This move has raised eyebrows, especially considering Turkey's longstanding ties with NATO and its aspirations for EU membership. As BRICS prepares to welcome new members like Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia in 2024, Turkey's potential inclusion becomes even more intriguing.
Understanding BRICS
BRICS represents a coalition of emerging economies aiming to amplify the voice of developing nations in global economic affairs. These countries collectively account for a substantial portion of the world's population and economic output. However, it's crucial to note that BRICS is far from a homogeneous group, with member states often having divergent political and economic interests.
Turkey's Motivations
So why is Turkey, a country traditionally aligned with Western institutions, eyeing BRICS membership? Several factors come into play:
Economic Diversification: Turkey sees BRICS as an opportunity to tap into new markets and diversify its economic partnerships. This could potentially buffer Turkey against economic shocks and reduce dependence on traditional trade partners.Addressing Trade Imbalances: Turkey currently faces significant trade deficits with some BRICS nations, particularly Russia and China. Joining the group could provide a platform to negotiate more favorable trade terms and balance these relationships.Investment Attraction: While Turkey has been successful in drawing foreign direct investment (FDI) from Western countries, it has struggled to attract similar levels of investment from BRICS nations. Membership could open doors to increased FDI flows from these emerging economies.
Potential Risks and Geopolitical Implications
Turkey's BRICS ambitions are not without risks. The move could potentially strain relationships with NATO allies and complicate Turkey's EU accession process. As the first NATO member to potentially join BRICS, Turkey's decision could have far-reaching implications for global geopolitics.
Moreover, Turkey would need to navigate the complex dynamics within BRICS itself. The group includes nations with sometimes conflicting interests and varying degrees of tension with Western powers. Balancing these relationships would require deft diplomacy from Turkish policymakers.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Turkey's interest in BRICS reflects a broader trend of nations seeking to diversify their economic and strategic partnerships in an increasingly multipolar world. However, it also underscores the delicate balancing act Turkey faces as it attempts to maintain its traditional alliances while exploring new opportunities.
As Turkey continues to pursue BRICS membership, transparency from the government regarding its intentions and the potential implications of this move will be crucial. This would not only help address domestic concerns but also signal to international partners how Turkey envisions its role in the changing global order.
In conclusion, Turkey's BRICS aspirations represent a significant moment in its foreign policy evolution. Whether this move proves to be a strategic masterstroke or a geopolitical gamble remains to be seen. What's clear is that it has the potential to reshape Turkey's position on the world stage and influence the broader dynamics of international relations.
#BRICS #Turkey #türkiye #Russia #NATO

In a move that signals growing confidence in Turkey's economic trajectory, Japan's Rating and Investment Information (R&I) has revised the country's credit outlook from "negative" to "stable." This shift acknowledges the Turkish government's successful efforts to maintain fiscal discipline, combat inflation, and promote macroeconomic stability even as the global economic landscape remains uncertain.
Factors Behind the Upgrade
Several factors underpin R&I's positive assessment:
Strong Growth Potential: Turkey's youthful population and robust economy position it for continued growth, even amidst global headwinds.Fiscal Responsibility: The government's commitment to prudent fiscal policies has improved the fiscal balance and demonstrates a focus on sustainable growth.Tighter Monetary Policy: The Central Bank's tight monetary stance has curbed inflation, a key step in achieving macroeconomic stability.Improved External Position: A narrower current account deficit and increasing foreign exchange reserves point to a recovering external sector.
Moderating Growth, Continued Challenges
While Turkey experienced impressive 5.1% growth in 2023, a slowdown is expected in 2024 due to tighter monetary policy and subdued domestic demand. However, exports are projected to rise with the recovery in Europe. Forecasts from both the Turkish government and the IMF anticipate growth around 3.4-3.5% for 2024.
Challenges persist, including elevated inflation, the need for post-earthquake reconstruction, and external vulnerabilities. However, the government's proactive measures, including further fiscal deficit reduction and debt management, are seen as positive steps.
A Positive Step Forward
R&I's upgrade of Turkey's credit outlook highlights the country's progress toward economic stability. Though challenges remain, the government's focus on fiscal discipline, inflation control, and sustainable growth paints a promising picture for Turkey's economic future.

#IMF #Turkey #türkiye #Japan