TOTAL2

Between February 1-3, 2025, the largest liquidation event in crypto history occurred in terms of quantity, if not proportionally.

I know, many of our friends only follow the price of their own coins/tokens, but it is difficult to make predictions about our own assets without understanding the general outlook and direction of the market and liquidity.

Now let's look at the general outlook. 👀

👉 #TOTAL

There is no problem on the weekly view. The previous peak has been retested and the rising trend is maintained. Although the $2.29T level is the first support below the trend, of course we do not want the market, which has been in sidelines for a long time, to make deeper corrections and become even more annoying.

On the daily chart, we are watching the accumulation movement in the range between the upper red box and the lower green box. In the last decline, the liquidation of the range bottom was swept, including the liquidation block that I showed with the blue semicircle, and it entered the range by bouncing back above the green box. The lower limit of the green box also corresponds to almost 50% of the wick of the daily decline candle, and is important in this respect.

Normally, if we do not see an immediate recovery with a big V bounce after such deep declines, first the middle of the wick, then the lowest end of the wick can be targeted again. It is important to follow the course here. Staying above the green box first targets the green box in the middle, then the red box above, but if we are going to see another liquidation event beforehand, it is important to follow the levels I marked on the wick and not to see a daily candle closing below $2.80T.

The biggest issue that bothered me in this decline was that $BTC remained limited to the decline side along with the market in general and didn't wicked the lower part that I have been referring to as a garbage liquidation block for weeks. Therefore, the decline remained largely an operation on the $ETH and #altcoins side.

Also, if $BTC cannot break this large accumulation area that I have put in this gray box and make a new ATH, altcoins that are already suffering enough would get even worse in a movement that can be seen towards this liquidation block below. Because there is a serious percentage decrease margin here and this area does not offer good price action and cannot be considered as a serious support, and if the support here does not work, there is a deep cliff to the previous peak level. Anyway, I do not want to talk about these for now.

I hope this scenario does not happen and the liquidations at lower levels are left for another spring or the next bear season. Because we are at important levels for the #altseason we desire. For this, do not forget to take a look at the #TOTAL2 , ETHBTC and other analyses that I will publish later.

Between February 1-3, 2025, the largest liquidation event in crypto history occurred in terms of quantity, if not proportionally.

I know, many of our friends only follow the price of their own coins/tokens, but it is difficult to make predictions about our own assets without understanding the general outlook and direction of the market and liquidity.

⭐ I also shared how BTC's bull and bear season cycles have worked in the past and therefore what we can expect until a different scenario occurs in my article below:
👀 BTCDOM, BTC and ETH / altcoins relation in mega bull runs

Before reading my #Altseason expectations, it may be useful to take a look at that article if you haven't looked at it before, because I will share the current state of my charts there, such as #ETHBTC and #BTCDOM , below and comment on the process.

👉 I quote the following directly from TOTAL analysis as is:

The biggest issue that bothered me in this decline was that $BTC remained limited to the decline side along with the market in general and didn't wicked the lower part that I have been referring to as a garbage liquidation block for weeks. Therefore, the decline remained largely an operation on the $ETH and #altcoins side.Also, if $BTC cannot break this large accumulation area that I have put in this gray box and make a new ATH, altcoins that are already suffering enough would get even worse in a movement that can be seen towards this liquidation block below. Because there is a serious percentage decrease margin here and this area does not offer good price action and cannot be considered as a serious support, and if the support here does not work, there is a deep cliff to the previous peak level. Anyway, I do not want to talk about these for now.

👉 You can view the full analysis from the link below:
👀 Current Outlook for the Crypto TOTAL Market Cap After The Largest Liquidation of 2025

Now let's look at the general outlook. 👀

👉 #TOTAL2
As you know, since BTC is excluded in TOTAL2, the coin with the largest market cap, ETH, leads the way and this is one of our important indicators for all altcoins led by ETH.

In the general picture, ETH is behind other major coins, especially BTC, and this is reflected in our chart. Although the approximately 1.5-year-long upward trend that has been going on since the end of the bear season has not been broken on the weekly chart, the trend line has been wicked and worked as support and ETH and all altcoins have suffered a serious blow here due to the percentage share in between.

Currently it is at $1.22T, just above the Daily EMA 200 level of $1.20T

The green box is also a significant support level on both the weekly and daily charts.

I mentioned that in new structures and formations that will occur after deep wicks, first the 50% level of the wick, and if the decline continues, the lower end of the wick can be targeted. If such a course is seen here, although there will be no problem in terms of the trend as long as it is not under the green trend support, both ETH and altcoins will be more deeply wounded due to the serious percentage decrease margin. For this reason, in the worst case scenario, we prefer and wish that the weekly close remains above the Daily EMA 200 and the green box.

If it holds above the green box, we expect a movement towards the red box resistance, but this movement takes us to the important resistance levels I mentioned in ETH and altcoin analyses and takes us to the decision stage. The desired increases are possible by breaking the red box resistance and being permanent above it. If this scenario is to happen here, it will be a good preliminary signal to see the red box being passed with a few long candles with volume.

⭐ ETH
Although there are some situations that bother me in the ETH chart, it continues to hold above the level that we would call the most critical High Time Frame (HTF) support. I will explain this in the ETH analysis that I will share later. Stay tuned.

⭐ ETHBTC ft. BTCDOM
I have been sharing my ETHBTC and BTCDOM comparative charts on social media since the day I started writing, and I say that I will occasionally remind you of the current situation and where we are. I shared it as a reference in the article I shared at the beginning and shared my views on the cycle.

Since many people could not interpret the charts and the price action correctly, they thought that the main trend had changed with every break in the internal structures, and that BTCDOM had started to fall and the altseason had begun, and they were caught up in the FOMO of this for months.

I explained in my previous analysis that I did not expect this to happen yet and that it would be healthier to have such an expectation after both charts reached the levels I marked.

Of course, this expectation is not a rule that will be definite, but it is nice to see that it has been acting in line with my expectation so far. The only issue here is that when ETHBTC reached the target below due to ETH's weak performance, BTCDOM still could not reach my target. However, with this big drop, BTCDOM has now reached the target.

From now on, as in the same price analysis, first 50% of the wick and if it continues, the tip of the wick may be the target and from here, with the support of a positive discrepancy on the RSI side, we can observe the formation of a double bottom reversal formation in ETH and ETHBTC.

⭐ ALTSEASON Expectations

The fact that the weekly long-term trends come to these important areas exactly at the support level may be a supporter of this.

What I mean is this;

If ETH and ETHBTC are going to reverse from these levels and start the cyclical movement we expect and this will be the starting whistle of the altseason, these levels are technically in a position to allow this. If there is going to be that expectation, that start should be here, exactly here!

If such a reversal on the ETHBTC does not break above to the green box within a maximum of 1.5-2 months, if BTCDOM also rises above the upper green box and permanently closes with the daily and weekly candle bodies here, I will also be wrong and will shape all my subsequent expectations and analyses accordingly because it will mean that the cycle that has been going on for 12 years is no longer working as we statistically expect.

However, until such a scenario happens, it would be a mistake to make all plans accordingly by expecting something that has never happened before, and I will not proceed in this way.

There are developments such as market sentiment, on-chain metrics and fundamental analysis issues that support this expectation and make us feel like we are in the middle of a big move, but since the article is getting too long, I wanted to limit it to technical coverage only.

I hope that my expectations will come true and that everyone who goes through this tedious and difficult process will reach a good and profitable situation, and that the difficulties and troubles they have gone through will be worth it.

Thanks for your time.
Peace out...

Acá hay que dejar varios puntos claros, en mi artículo de cuidado explique porque ha de tener cuidado este mes de enero, ahora explico que debe pasar para que pueda generar la alt season
La dominancia de bitcoin debe bajar por debajo de 55%$BTC debe mostrar fortaleza, en la zona donde está no muestra nada de fortaleza, por encima de 100k nos daría esa posibilidadLa dominancia de usdt debe bajar actualmente está mostrando fortaleza a pesar de las noticias #TOTAL2 debe mostrar fortaleza, actualmente en diario está mostrando debilidad haciendo mínimos más bajos y máximo más bajosEsperar que el mercado también de signo de fortaleza y el sp500 no lo está dando, está incluso formando estructura bajista en diario que indica corrección Esperar informe de Powel que ayude aumentar liquidez al mercado y seguridad a los inversores
Recuerden que la alt season ocurre en un periodo corto de tiempo dónde explota en un periodo de 3 meses de manera parabólicas y luego comienzan a bajar, pero para que esto ocurra debe cumplirse condiciones de mercado, cuando esto pase podemos entrar en altcoin irnos con el movimiento y tomar ganancias. Recuerden que gráficamente las altcoin solo suben en un rango de tiempo muy corto, estamos en las puertas de alt season? Yo digo que hay que esperar estar atento y tener la liquidez en la mano

#TOTAL2

TOTAL2 has been a very reliable chart to base the bull runs on. We're looking at it now to see where we could potentially reverse. For this chart to be bearish, we would have to take out the low at 850 billion. As long as we put a higher low above that, the chart will remain bullish in the longer term.

Between August and November, we went through an accumulation phase, where we put consecutive higher lows after completing a bullish harmonic. We can also see that from the low to the first higher low, before breaking out of the exponential down curve, we retraced a perfect 0.786, which is very typical of a wave 2 retracement. If you then take the Fibonacci extension levels from the high to the low, we hit a perfect 4.618 extension, which is uncommon but very possible for a wave 3 extension. This would currently put us in a wave 4 correction.

We have retraced and have today cut through the 0.382 retracement level and are sitting at the 1.26 support. However, this isn't a reliable support, as it only acted as resistance in the past and has never been held as support. We could, therefore, expect to go lower, and the next level would be the 0.5 retracement level at 1.21 trillion.

For a wave 4, it is common to retrace between the 0.5 and 0.618, and the 0.618 is around 1.11 trillion, which is where the next zone of support sits. I would, therefore, find it possible, if not probable, to retrace all the way down to the 0.618 at 1.11 trillion dollars and accumulate within that zone of support before the next substantial rally.

The next substantial rally will hopefully bring us to all-time highs, but it does not necessarily have to do that. We could retrace and put in another lower high, which would, at that point, confirm distribution and likely indicate a mid-to-long-term pause in the bull market, if not a reversal into a bear market. Until this happens, or we take out the low at 850, we remain bullish.

The last points to consider are that we didn't distribute at the highs and didn't have a major liquidation event, this suggests that these assets will revisit the highs or have deep retraces into them. We are also developing bullish divergence which will mature as long as we stay above 850 b. For that reason, we are not selling anything at these prices.

Conclusion

Analyze prices carefully around these levels:The current support at 1.26.The next support at 1.11 trillion.Look for TOTAL2 to showcase bullish accumulation or reversal.Once TOTAL2 signals its direction, focus on individual assets that align with the macro trend.Updates on specific positions will follow.