The CPI is the only important economic data this week🤨

Wednesday's CPI will be the only data of note this week, with consensus expecting a ~0.2% Core MoM print thanks to expectations of further downward price pressures on vehicle sales and shelter inflation. However, CPI days have disappointed in terms of realized moves this year, with Citi reporting that the average move in 2023 to be merely +/- 0.62%.

In terms of event volatilities, Jackson is currently priced as the most important event through to early September, beating out both this week's CPI and post-Labor Day NFP.

#CPI #inflation #Citi #JacksonHole #NFP

Important Economic Data to be Released Soon, Market Trends Stable🙃

Outside of China, markets were quiet with the UK out on Bank Holidays on Monday, with US markets following suit next Monday on Labour Day. Markets saw markets holding their continuation patterns after Jackson Hole, with US equities rallying 0.5-1%, and bond yields softening about 3bp across the curve as the double header of 2yr and 5yr auctions came in as market expected.

Despite a number of top-tier data releases on the horizon, namely with JOLTS / PCE / ISM / NFP, Friday's 10y future straddle is coming in on the soft-side at just over 54 ticks vs a 68 tick average for this year's NFP weeks (source: Citi), signaling a lot of comfort over the rate market's current pricing (20% chance for a Fed hike). Furthermore, the 2yr bond at over a 5% coupon is the first time that has happened since 2006, no doubt drawing some initial buying interests and it's been a long time since savings accounts have seen these yields.

#market #JacksonHole #equity #NFP #bond

US economic data remains weak, Powell may take aggressive measures again👆

US data was much less friendly to the goldilocks narrative today, as a sharp -5.2% drop in durable goods orders was offset against stronger than expected initial claims (230k vs 240k last week), with bond yields rising around 3bp on the day despite the rough showing in equities today. Furthermore, Atlanta Fed's GDPNow was revised up even further to 5.9% for Q3, adding further hawkish pressures to Powell's Jackson Hole speech today, where he will be delivering a keynote on the topic of "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy". Both nominal and real (inflation adjusted) yields are going into the symposium at 90%-percentile highs going back to 2004. Last year's keynote was surprisingly brief, with Powell brutally explicit in trying to usher rates higher, leading to the infamous Q4 risk sell-off. Will the US economy still in decent shape, and inflation and labour markets only showing limited signs of softening despite rates at >5%, will the Chairman be looking for another Round 2 knock-out? Stay tuned!

#US #Powell #GDPNow #JacksonHole #rate