A series of strong employment data😳

An unhelpful spate of healthy labour data (Challenger job layoffs recovered to a -8.2% YoY drop, versus -25.2% YoY in June, 4-week initial claims average down to 228.25k from 233.75k, blowout ADP from Wednesday) was met with an unexpected rise in the ISM services price index, where price gains rose the most in 2 years after nearly 16-months of uninterrupted drops.

#Employment #Labour #Challenger #ADP #ISM

US economic data shows signs of weakness🧐

US economic data disappointed very slightly on the weak side, starting with the JOLTS job data showing 9.582mm job openings vs expectations of 9.6mm, with a corresponding drop in the quits rate to 2.4%, matching the lows of the past 2 years. More importantly, the key "jobs per unemployed" ratio remained steady at 1.6x, remaining at cycle lows since 2021, though still extremely elevated by historical standards.

ISM Manufacturing missed at 46.4 vs 46.9 expected, and underlying composition was mixed with increases in new orders and production versus decreases in employment. However, a bigger drop in prices paid coming in at 42.6 vs 44 was seen as a risk positive, as asset classes continue to welcome any continued disinflationary signs they can see.

#US #economy #ISM #manufacturing

Busy week for economic data🗞️📑📝

This coming week will see another holiday-shortened session (July 4th Independence Day), though the data-calendar is actually going to be relatively jam-packed. Monday’s ‘early-close’ will see Manufacturing PMI, ISM, and auto-sales all condensed into ~3–4 hours of condensed market action. Following that, we’ll see a rare Labour-Trifecta day with ADP, Jobless Claims, and JOLTS all due on Thursday, followed by ISM Services, June FOMC Minutes, and Friday’s last NFP report before the July Fed meeting. This might be the last and busiest data week before market participants begin to embark on their long summer holidays.

#PMI #ADP #ISM #FOMC #NFP

Economic data surprises the market💫

German factory orders started the session on a strong note with a 6.4% MoM print vs 1.2% expected, but it was ADP that really got the party going with an implausible +497k print vs +225k expected (Services +373k, manufacturing -420k), along with a stable weekly claims (248k) and the lowest Challenger layoff announcements since last October. Although the JOLTs data was a bit more muted with the weakest job-vacancy to unemployed ratio since October 2021 (1.6x) balanced against a rebound in quits rate (more voluntary quits), ISM Services more than made up for whatever disappointment one might have had with a strong beat in headlines as well as the New Orders (55.5 vs 52.9) and Employment (53.1 vs 49.2) sub-indices.

#ADP #manufacturing #Challenger #jolts #ISM

The ISM data results are in contrast with the recent weak employment data🤔

Over in treasuries, bond yields were still trying to recover after yesterday’s massive 34bln+ of rate locking activities (from IG corporate issuance), but a very strong ISM Services print pushed 2yr yields above 5% again, with November hiking odds back higher to 45%. The guts of the ISM report stood out in stark contest against the recent weakening in labour data, with the employment sub-component at the strongest levels since Nov 2021, prices paid jumping to 58.9 (from 56.8), and new orders to 57.5 (from 50).

#cryptocurrency #bitcoin #crypto2023 #ISM #Treasuries

Non-farm employment data to be released soon, market expects strong performance👋

Today is NFP Friday, and the market is likely bracing for an upside surprise to the 200k median headline estimate, given the strength of high-velocity labour data, as well as positive employment surprises from alternate, big-data based sources. Furthermore,a big focus will be placed on the Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) number, where an unwelcome rebound (like what we saw from ISM Services) might force the FOMC back in play during Q4, with the futures market currently only pricing a 20% chance of a final hike before year-end.

#NFP #market #earning #FOMC #ISM