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FOMCMinutes
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Market Recalibrates, Fed Holds Steady on Rate Outlook๐Ÿ‘€ Markets took a breather yesterday, with equities treading water, US rates lower by a bp across the curve, while the USD softened amidst a still positive risk backdrop. USDCNY (as a proxy for USD-EM pairs) showed the most overbought RSI (in CNH terms) as investors have been swift in pivoting to the rate-cut narrative. On the credit side, IG spreads have tightened to the tightest levels since the GFC (2007), in part due to rising base treasury yields, and in part due to the return of yield hunting sentiment from asset managers.Today's lower-tier data set did little to move the needle, with soft housing sales, weak Chicago Fed activity, and slightly improved Philly Fed services offering little impact on market price action. The 2pm FOMC minutes also saw muted reaction afterwards, with the Fed pretty much in a holding pattern with the same party line of 'higher for longer' in the official text. BBG Headlines flashed:FED MINUTES: ALL ON FOMC AGREE TO โ€˜PROCEED CAREFULLYโ€™ ON RATESALL ON FOMC SAW RATES REMAINING RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIMEFED SEES FURTHER TIGHTENING IF INFLATION PROGRESS INSUFFICIENTfrom which markets remain undeterred that the Fed is done with rate hikes over this cycle, with Dec 2024 Fed Fund futures still pricing in 90bp of easing next year. #USDSoftening #RateCutNarrative #CreditTightening #FOMCMinutes #RateOutlook
Market Recalibrates, Fed Holds Steady on Rate Outlook๐Ÿ‘€
Markets took a breather yesterday, with equities treading water, US rates lower by a bp across the curve, while the USD softened amidst a still positive risk backdrop. USDCNY (as a proxy for USD-EM pairs) showed the most overbought RSI (in CNH terms) as investors have been swift in pivoting to the rate-cut narrative. On the credit side, IG spreads have tightened to the tightest levels since the GFC (2007), in part due to rising base treasury yields, and in part due to the return of yield hunting sentiment from asset managers.Today's lower-tier data set did little to move the needle, with soft housing sales, weak Chicago Fed activity, and slightly improved Philly Fed services offering little impact on market price action. The 2pm FOMC minutes also saw muted reaction afterwards, with the Fed pretty much in a holding pattern with the same party line of 'higher for longer' in the official text. BBG Headlines flashed:FED MINUTES: ALL ON FOMC AGREE TO โ€˜PROCEED CAREFULLYโ€™ ON RATESALL ON FOMC SAW RATES REMAINING RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIMEFED SEES FURTHER TIGHTENING IF INFLATION PROGRESS INSUFFICIENTfrom which markets remain undeterred that the Fed is done with rate hikes over this cycle, with Dec 2024 Fed Fund futures still pricing in 90bp of easing next year.
#USDSoftening #RateCutNarrative #CreditTightening #FOMCMinutes #RateOutlook
FOMC minutes reveal dovish tonesโ˜• While markets were looking like it's due for a quiet day, a supposedly stale FOMC minutes showed surprisingly dovish language suggesting that policy rates have become "sufficiently restrictive" and economic risks to be two sided. Several mentions of 'policy rate peak' had surfaced, and that "the focus of policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels". Furthermore, 'many' officials saw downsie risks to growth, despite the current resilience, and agreed that tighter credit is likely to dampen economic activity. Finally, Fed officials commented and addressed the higher 'term-premium' for the first time in their written commentary, suggesting their growing sensitivity to the subject just as the yield curve has steepened around 60bp from their July lows. All-in-all, the comments further cemented the apparent dovish tilt we saw from Fed officials after the weekend, pushing 30 yields down by 9bp on the day and SPX jumping 1% from their intraday lows. #macro #FOMCMinutes #PolicyRate #EconomicRisks #YieldCurve
FOMC minutes reveal dovish tonesโ˜•
While markets were looking like it's due for a quiet day, a supposedly stale FOMC minutes showed surprisingly dovish language suggesting that policy rates have become "sufficiently restrictive" and economic risks to be two sided. Several mentions of 'policy rate peak' had surfaced, and that "the focus of policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels". Furthermore, 'many' officials saw downsie risks to growth, despite the current resilience, and agreed that tighter credit is likely to dampen economic activity. Finally, Fed officials commented and addressed the higher 'term-premium' for the first time in their written commentary, suggesting their growing sensitivity to the subject just as the yield curve has steepened around 60bp from their July lows.
All-in-all, the comments further cemented the apparent dovish tilt we saw from Fed officials after the weekend, pushing 30 yields down by 9bp on the day and SPX jumping 1% from their intraday lows.
#macro #FOMCMinutes #PolicyRate #EconomicRisks #YieldCurve
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KENAPA FOMC MEMPENGARUHI CRYPTO?Hallo binancian, Ini ada bacaan buat teman2 dari adminBagaimana FOMC Meeting Mempengaruhi Kripto?Mata uang kripto kerap digadang-gadang sebagai aset yang tahan terhadap inflasi. Meskipun memiliki tingkat bunga rendah, nilai simpan kripto dapat dijadikan sebagai lindung nilai terhadap mata uang fiat yang tidak stabil. Akan tetapi, saat The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, nilai tukar uang fiat yang cenderung melemah akan ikut berdampak pada kondisi pasar saham dan kripto.Di sisi lain, investasi Bitcoin dan mata uang kripto lainnya sudah menurun dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Penyebabnya ialah banyak investor lebih memilih mengamankan dana mereka dari aset berisiko dan mencari instrumen alternatif yang lebih aman dan menguntungkan.Dikutip dari CoinMarketCap, sejak The Fed mulai menaikkan suku bunga, harga kripto terus menurun. Bitcoin, misalnya, pada November 2021 berharga $70 ribu per token. Akan tetapi, Bitcoin merosot hingga mencapai $19 ribu.Kondisi serupa juga terjadi pada Ethereum. Sejak awal tahun hingga Agustus 2022, Ethereum sudah mengalami penurunan harga 35%.Secara umum, hasil keputusan FOMC meeting, baik bagus maupun tidak, akan menjadi momen yang paling dinanti karena memengaruhi kondisi pasar dan nilai tukar secara keseluruhan. Karena itu, investor dan trader harus memiliki ilmu dan informasi yang memadai guna meminimalkan risiko yang mungkin terjadi.Pengumuman bernada hawkish atau yang mendukung kebijakan moneter ketat biasanya berimbas buruk bagi kripto, begitu pula jika sebaliknya.$BTC #fomc #FOMCMinutes #BTC

KENAPA FOMC MEMPENGARUHI CRYPTO?

Hallo binancian, Ini ada bacaan buat teman2 dari adminBagaimana FOMC Meeting Mempengaruhi Kripto?Mata uang kripto kerap digadang-gadang sebagai aset yang tahan terhadap inflasi. Meskipun memiliki tingkat bunga rendah, nilai simpan kripto dapat dijadikan sebagai lindung nilai terhadap mata uang fiat yang tidak stabil. Akan tetapi, saat The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, nilai tukar uang fiat yang cenderung melemah akan ikut berdampak pada kondisi pasar saham dan kripto.Di sisi lain, investasi Bitcoin dan mata uang kripto lainnya sudah menurun dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Penyebabnya ialah banyak investor lebih memilih mengamankan dana mereka dari aset berisiko dan mencari instrumen alternatif yang lebih aman dan menguntungkan.Dikutip dari CoinMarketCap, sejak The Fed mulai menaikkan suku bunga, harga kripto terus menurun. Bitcoin, misalnya, pada November 2021 berharga $70 ribu per token. Akan tetapi, Bitcoin merosot hingga mencapai $19 ribu.Kondisi serupa juga terjadi pada Ethereum. Sejak awal tahun hingga Agustus 2022, Ethereum sudah mengalami penurunan harga 35%.Secara umum, hasil keputusan FOMC meeting, baik bagus maupun tidak, akan menjadi momen yang paling dinanti karena memengaruhi kondisi pasar dan nilai tukar secara keseluruhan. Karena itu, investor dan trader harus memiliki ilmu dan informasi yang memadai guna meminimalkan risiko yang mungkin terjadi.Pengumuman bernada hawkish atau yang mendukung kebijakan moneter ketat biasanya berimbas buruk bagi kripto, begitu pula jika sebaliknya.$BTC #fomc #FOMCMinutes #BTC
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