1. Pre-Halving Rally
Approximately 30 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
And ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)
History has repeated in this respect
In fact, the Pre-Halving Rally breakout was a little ahead of schedule by a handful of days
However, Bitcoin is now slowly transitioning away from its "Pre-Halving Rally" phase and into its "Pre-Halving Retrace" phase
Pre-Halving Retrace tends to occur approximately 28 to 14 days before the Halving
And with Bitcoin having pulled back -11% last week, it is looking like history is once again repeating
In fact, much like the Pre-Halving Rally, it looks like the Pre-Halving Retrace may be a little ahead of schedule by a handful of days as well
Nonetheless, if this current downside continues in the coming weeks, this will be the confirmation that the Pre-Halving Retrace is firmly underway
So even though Bitcoin has performed a historic, never-before-done feat in its price action in the Pre-Halving period by breaking to new All Time Highs...
Still history has found a way to repeat itself
The "Pre-Halving Rally" began pretty much right on schedule
And it also appears like the "Pre-Halving Retrace" is beginning pretty much right on schedule as well
Th Pre-Halving Rally phase has been extensive but it may very well be ending as we speak
The next step is the "Pre-Halving Retrace" phase
2. Final Pre-Halving Retrace
A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a 28 to 14 days before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep
In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep
Currently, $BTC is 30 days away from the Halving and has pulled back -11% last week
This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks and up to 77 days
This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January, a -14% pullback in early March, and now a -11% pullback is in progress
Therefore it's possible a Pre-Halving Retrace, should one occur, would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side
Also, this Pre-Halving Retrace could also be much shorter than has otherwise been the case historically
3. Re-Accumulation
The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)
This period can last up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)
Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving
However, in this cycle it would be the very first time that this Re-Accumulation Range could develop around the New All Time High area
As a result, this Re-Accumulation Range may simply take the shape of a regular sideways range and may not last very long before additional uptrend continuation
4. Parabolic Uptrend
Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)
It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth into a parabolic uptrend
Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days) however with a potential Accelerated Cycle occurring right now, this figure may get cut in half in this market cycle
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