📉 Market Reaction: Low Volatility Despite High Expectations

The much-anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry event in January concluded with minimal price movement, defying expectations of heightened volatility.

Over 80,000 BTC options expired, with a maximum pain point at $98,000, yet the market showed no significant swings below $100,000.

Despite the $8.38 billion in expiring BTC options and $1.96 billion in Ethereum (ETH) options, the event failed to spark a notable rally or downturn.

🎭 Trump’s Influence: Cautious Approach Dampens Market Sentiment

The market had high hopes for clearer crypto policies following Donald Trump’s inauguration, but his measured stance on Bitcoin as a reserve asset led to disappointment.

BTC’s performance over the past three months reflected the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s administration’s stance on crypto.

📆 Looking Ahead: March Options Expiry in Focus

After a subdued January, traders now shift focus to the first quarterly options expiry of 2025 in March.

Currently, the notional value of BTC options for March stands at $10.43 billion, with call options accumulating at $110,000 and $120,000.

📊 BTC’s Monthly Performance: Greed Still Drives Trading

BTC closed January with an 11.65% net gain, while ETH slipped 2.65%, reflecting worsening sentiment for altcoins.

Bitcoin’s volatility index remained low at 1.89%, showing only slight movement over the past week.

Fear and Greed Index remained at 76, signaling strong greed-driven trading behavior.

💹 Derivatives Market: Traders Rebuild Positions

After the latest liquidation event, leveraged traders re-entered the market, positioning BTC for potential volatility.

Key liquidity levels:

$103,768.71 – Immediate price level with $39 million in liquidity.

$106,000 - $107,000 – Most liquid short positions, potentially triggering a price spike.

BTC’s open interest stabilized at $30 billion across major exchanges, with 55% long positions vs. 44% short.

Spot buyers continue to accumulate BTC, with a shift from older whales to new investors.

Wallet distribution:

$1,000+ BTC wallets increasing

75% of BTC wallets hold “dust” amounts, showing retail traders’ continued involvement.

🚀 Road to a New All-Time High?

Despite short-term sluggishness, BTC remains resilient compared to ETH and altcoins.

The market anticipates a strong Q1, with BTC possibly reaching $120,000.

However, a potential bull market peak looms, raising concerns about a possible reversal in the coming months.

Unlike previous cycles, ETH and altcoins rely heavily on stablecoin inflows, rather than BTC-led momentum.

🔎 Final Thoughts: Market in a Holding Pattern

Bitcoin’s price action remains sideways, with accumulation continuing and traders waiting for a breakout.

March’s quarterly expiry will be the next major event, likely dictating BTC’s trajectory for Q2 2025.

Will BTC push toward new highs, or is a correction on the horizon? Traders remain on edge as the crypto market navigates a period of uncertainty.

#BTC $ETH $BNB #MicroStrategyAcquiresBTC #VVVonBinance