📉 Market Reaction: Low Volatility Despite High Expectations
The much-anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry event in January concluded with minimal price movement, defying expectations of heightened volatility.
Over 80,000 BTC options expired, with a maximum pain point at $98,000, yet the market showed no significant swings below $100,000.
Despite the $8.38 billion in expiring BTC options and $1.96 billion in Ethereum (ETH) options, the event failed to spark a notable rally or downturn.
🎭 Trump’s Influence: Cautious Approach Dampens Market Sentiment
The market had high hopes for clearer crypto policies following Donald Trump’s inauguration, but his measured stance on Bitcoin as a reserve asset led to disappointment.
BTC’s performance over the past three months reflected the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s administration’s stance on crypto.
📆 Looking Ahead: March Options Expiry in Focus
After a subdued January, traders now shift focus to the first quarterly options expiry of 2025 in March.
Currently, the notional value of BTC options for March stands at $10.43 billion, with call options accumulating at $110,000 and $120,000.
📊 BTC’s Monthly Performance: Greed Still Drives Trading
BTC closed January with an 11.65% net gain, while ETH slipped 2.65%, reflecting worsening sentiment for altcoins.
Bitcoin’s volatility index remained low at 1.89%, showing only slight movement over the past week.
Fear and Greed Index remained at 76, signaling strong greed-driven trading behavior.
💹 Derivatives Market: Traders Rebuild Positions
After the latest liquidation event, leveraged traders re-entered the market, positioning BTC for potential volatility.
Key liquidity levels:
$103,768.71 – Immediate price level with $39 million in liquidity.
$106,000 - $107,000 – Most liquid short positions, potentially triggering a price spike.
BTC’s open interest stabilized at $30 billion across major exchanges, with 55% long positions vs. 44% short.
📈 Spot Market Trends: Accumulation Continues
Spot buyers continue to accumulate BTC, with a shift from older whales to new investors.
Wallet distribution:
$1,000+ BTC wallets increasing
75% of BTC wallets hold “dust” amounts, showing retail traders’ continued involvement.
🚀 Road to a New All-Time High?
Despite short-term sluggishness, BTC remains resilient compared to ETH and altcoins.
The market anticipates a strong Q1, with BTC possibly reaching $120,000.
However, a potential bull market peak looms, raising concerns about a possible reversal in the coming months.
Unlike previous cycles, ETH and altcoins rely heavily on stablecoin inflows, rather than BTC-led momentum.
🔎 Final Thoughts: Market in a Holding Pattern
Bitcoin’s price action remains sideways, with accumulation continuing and traders waiting for a breakout.
March’s quarterly expiry will be the next major event, likely dictating BTC’s trajectory for Q2 2025.
Will BTC push toward new highs, or is a correction on the horizon? Traders remain on edge as the crypto market navigates a period of uncertainty.
