Why I’m still saying BTC will go up and cross 100k?

Previously I said that BTC may go 100k up within end of the April. However, due to the news event related to US bank interest rate, gold and Bitcoin market faced huge dip.

I have explained this on a dedicated post. You must read that to understand the situation.

Now, why I’m still so hopeful?

Because, if we know about news trading, we know news effects are mostly temporary. News works like a signal for every traders. In fact our traders also shorted BTC and other coin in short term trades 5 mins before the public release of the news. Don’t ask how we got the news 5 mins earlier, because that will be dumb as I explained this previously.

Anyway, two things can happen. One is, maybe US policy makers will reject the idea of higher bank interests. Because, we all know the richest people in USA use debt to leverage their wealth. Those people are lobbying the policymakers for decades. It’s open secret.

So if a news comes, that the idea of increasing interest got rejected or the increase was not significant, that will create a bull market.

Another reason you should know. When there is peace and no war, markets remain stable and people starts saving money in flat. As per the news we see peace talk between Hamas and Israel. There is possible ceasefire.

But honestly, the corrupt PM of Israel won’t let it happen. He is trying to escalate this war. He intentionally attacked on Irans consulate in Syria killing 7 high official diplomats. He expected that US will support him with this, but US literally said due you are mad, don’t involve us.

Iran also warned them 20 times before sending very slow drone attacks to show their power to take revenge while causing no damage to civilians in order to remain hero in UN. Israel attacked Iran with full force, but alone tiny Israel cannot do much when big supporters US is saying stay clam.

So, there was no escalation.

But I can assure you the PM of Israel will keep the war ongoing for the political benefit. He doesn’t want to lose this power.

Peace is far.

If you notice almost all alt coins are all time low.

BTC still standing, but price is going down.

This is halving effect. We will see many shit coin get near 0. Even you will see good alt coin at ATL. But that will be for short term.

I’ll utilise this opportunity and buy as many coin I can.

But I would suggest enter slowly, and try to get lowest entry possible.

Don’t do feature trade or leverage trade. Market is high volatile. Must increase margin of open trades.

Long term investors shouldn’t bother. But those who are new and don’t know what happens during and after BTC halving, will definitely freak out.

I usually suggest people not to check investments too frequently.

Stop following stupid signals. Because none can predict short term move in such high volatile market.

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Why BTC and all other cryptocurrencies has fallen?

Well, you may think this was a usual fall as same happened recently when BTC failed to break its resistance point.

You are completely wrong! The reason behind the fall market is Pre BTC Halving Effect…

Let’s look at some data:

1st Bitcoin Halving:
Date: November 28, 2012
Reward reduction: 50 BTC to 25 BTC
Total Bitcoin supply: About 10.5 million
Price 1 day before: Around $11 per BTC

2nd Bitcoin Halving:
Date: July 9, 2016
Reward reduction: 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC
Total Bitcoin supply: About 15.75 million
Price 1 day before: Around $657 per BTC

3rd Bitcoin Halving:
Date: May 11, 2020
Reward reduction: 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC
Total Bitcoin supply: About 18.375 million
Price 1 day before: Around $8,600 per BTC

4th Bitcoin Halving (Estimated):
Date: April 19, 2024
Reward reduction: Expected from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC
Total Bitcoin supply (Estimated): About 19.6875 million
Price 1 day before: Cannot be accurately predicted.

I know it’s confusing. Let me explain..

How Bitcoin actually works?

Well, Bitcoin haven’t started like current ETH based coins where the developers mint as many coin they want and start airdropping.

BTC was programmed in a way, that if you need BTC you must mine it. Even the founder of Bitcoin, he also mined Bitcoin and stored in his wallet.

The more the number of blocks in the network, the more complicated the mining process gets. Basically miners are behind all the transactions confirmation. If you haven’t read my post on Halving, I would suggest you to go and read all my post. I use most simple words to explain.

The issue is, the founder knew, as technology will evolve, mining will be easier. So more and more people will start mining Bitcoin, so market supply will be increasing dramatically.

So he decided to write a function that eventually reduces the rewards by half. So in feature, a point will came when the total supply will decrease instead of increasing. And the point is 21 million Bitcoin which will be the max supply of Bitcoin in lifetime.

PREDICTION OF $ENA ?
It’s all here 👇👇🍀
It’s a new token, let’s say it will be affordable starting with 0,01$
After few seconds let’s expect the rise to completely 0,9$ going to 1$
And when everyone else seems to be buying we skip some dollar 💵 and go to 4$ ENA
The more FOMO people get then the price becomes higher and double it to 8$ yes you had it right
$ENATHA ain’t going to be cheaper as you are probably imagining🤣 remember we haven’t heard a listed coin almost 15 days and I guarantee you this coin will be the hell of a expensive and everyone will be longing FOMO. Or should I say the majority of us
Never mind!
Remember those are all assumptions please I am not expert of this prediction and don’t purchase the coin and say you that Crypto Mummy said it’s a good one no that’s wrong.
DYOR= Do your own research 🔬 and stop putting the blame on me for your ignorance.
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“Spot Trading is for poor people and Future Trading is for rich people”, the best joke I heard till now.

People saying the opposite. Leverage (a.k.a Loan-Contract-By-Broker) for rich people to multiply their gain with very less money.

For example, suppose I have 500 million to invest. But I invested 5 million in the market and remaining I kept somewhere safe. Suppose I placed a long (buy) order on BTC when market was at 70k USD. So I should have 14.29 BTC approximately. But I used 100x leverage, so I have 1429 BTC. Then it went to 71k and technically I suppose to make 1k for each BTC. So, I made more than 1 429 000 in profit with only 5 million. If you get almost 1.5 million with 5 million in a short period,,, it’s not bad right?

Now let’s say, BTC went down to 69.5k, I lost 500$ for each BTC. So I lost 1429*500, that means more than 0.715 million. So I still have something like 4.285 million left. Nothing to worry, right?

What if it goes to 63k? I’m losing 7k for each BTC, which is total 103 million. Now, for most retail traders, you will get margin call a lot earlier and broker / platform will keep closing out all your orders and you may lose all your deposited money or at least 50% (if they close on -50% P/L).

For institutional traders or professional classified traders like me, broker will call me, “Sir, you have negative balance in your account, please deposit 98 million or more.” Then I’ll say, “ No worries, I’m putting 495 million more to increase margin.” Either I can deposit or wait 1 month to get negative balance positive (as BTC price increases), as most brokers gives 1 month time.

Now, say, is Future / Leveraged Trading for poor people or rich people?

Poor people, let’s say he has only 10k and he will make a order with 100x leverage and eventually lose all his money on Margin Call. (For poor people, it’s not actual call or warning, so I would say Margin Trigger)

Man! Trade with your money on spot if you don’t have much. Leveraged trading, the way you use it, is clear gambling. Either make some or lose all!

Dip market is good for buying crypto.

But you need to make sure you get maximum profit. I usually follow cost averaging swing trade strategy.

Swing trading is usually for sort term trading. Instead of getting entry at once, we enter slowly in different price points when we know market will rebound. But now, you will see all long term investors are following this strategy. For investors, the method is popular as Cost Averaging (CA) or DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging).

Now we need to know when this strategy is actually useful and we should not use this strategy.

When to use in spot or buy order:
1. Market is going down dramatically. Like minimum 3% everyday.
2. Market has enough trade volume.
3. The project is matured, well established and stable.
4. The price is above NP, and not at ATH.
5. You know market will rebound.

When not to use:
1. Market is going up suddenly. Like 10% up a day.
2. There is not enough trading volume. The crypto act like stable coin.
3. New projects or a project that is not stable.
4. The price is below NP, or at ATH.
5. When you have very less money to invest in each coin. Like 100$, 200$.
6. When you know the coin price will never go down, it will keep going upwards.

Let me give you a good example of cost averaging swing trade. Let’s say, this month BTC may go 50k and then rebound back to 71k. Now either, you wait till 50k to buy, but maximum time you will lose the opportunity. Or you can buy 25% at 65k, 25% at 60k, 25% at 55k and increase in goes below you buy 25% at 50k. This how you are not taking risk losing the swig opportunity, and ensuring that you get maximum profit.

But if you start applying this averaging when it’s not swing, just continuously growing up, you are actually missing the opportunity and reducing the opportunity. Like if BTC is 15k and you start buying 25% each month, you are literally waiting for higher price to enter. I saw many index funds suggest you to do that in the name of DCA. Those are BS.

If you have any questions, feel free to ask. I’ll try to reply or answer in my next post.

Let me analyse the BTC price without chart.

Imagine, you know, something gonna worth 100k in few months. Current price is 71k. Now if you get a chance to buy the same stuff at 60k, will you wait till it go 45k?

Nope.

Maximum you can wait till 55k. People will rush to buy at that low price.

So there is a low chance that BTC will touch 45k.

Do you think MS and BR, who bought BTC at price of 55k-65k on average, will be selling the coins at 45k? Answer is no!

Now if you are paying with features / leverage than off course you need to be concerning about this. If you think this can ruin your life, just close the trade. Sometimes, we have to take lose for better gains. I made a post that, most dumbest things one can say “You won’t lose anything, if you don’t sell.” In fact this was never meant for trading with leverage.

Yes, for long term holders or short term spot traders, it’s nothing. Short term holders know that if they hold, the price will go back to 70k. Maybe it can be quick or maybe it can take 2-3 months. For long term holders, they will hold the crypto for at-least 5 years any way. They know BTC is the next world currency as USD is dying.