Unichain, Uniswap V4, and the impact on ETH and other projects
Here’s a brief reflection: As most of you probably know, Uniswap is set to operate #Unichain (its own Layer 2 built on Superchain with finality around 250ms).
I can imagine that Uniswap will want to shift a significant portion of its activities to this new chain.
They are already moving in this direction, and in collaboration with ACX, they have created the ERC-7683 standard, which will be supported by Unichain: https://t.co/2Va7DDXFCB (essentially a settlement contract where you lock your assets, and it waits for "processing" on the other side. Once completed, you receive your token as part of the cross-chain swap).
Who benefits from this? 🐂 Naturally, @Uniswap ( $UNI ), but also @Optimism ( $OP ) (since Unichain is built on OP's Superchain) and $ACX (due to the cooperation and partnership around ERC-7683). Additionally, part of the fees will flow to Optimism because Uniswap is leveraging their technology.
For whom it's bearish? 🐻 Ethereum ( $ETH ). Uniswap is one of the most significant contributors to ETH fees (around $450 million annually). If Uniswap manages to move a portion of its trading activity to its own Layer 2, where the fees go to Optimism, ETH could lose a substantial part of its "revenue." Similarly, Uniswap V4 is bearish for ETH (see my previous research about it here: https://t.co/F7yaRT5duH), as the contract creation and optimization of multi-hop swaps via the Singleton model will lead to lower fees for swaps in general.
Anybody knows more about $CRAI ($1.7 mil. mkt cap)? https://dexscreener.com/ethereum/0x3F66aE0c8E9Fb57f661aF4Ba8C8445D36ec5d7F7
Website http://cryptify.ai and docs https://docs.cryptify.ai/ seems good but so far I haven't seen it anywhere in groups and not seen any KOLs/SMW onboarding so not sure if it's not larp/farm 😆
Narratives and my expectations for the upcoming narratives
1) L1 narratives -> it's easy. I still see potential in side L1s and once they pump the ecosystems will follow and give some time to onboard (SUI, SEI,...)
2) #RWA narrative -> I'm holding for some time $MPL and I'm slowly buying some $RIO. Both shows strength and RWA narrative has many reasons to pump after the AI narrative pumps we've seen in the previous days. the main drivers from large-caps will probably be $ONDO and $MKR (and small caps follow).
3) Restaking narrative -> no I'm not buying EGP or something. I'm waiting patiently for $EIGEN to see how market will price it. In the case $EIGEN pumps over $10 bil. I think the rest of restaking projects like Renzo, Eigenpie or Ethfi will follow
4) Bitcoin ecosystem/Defi -> I'm watching mainly STX and the reaction on Nakamoto upgrade. It can bring fresh some fresh money into the BTC eco again
5) Uniswap V4 and dinosaur DeFi -> V4 is a big thing despite most of the market still overlook it. It can bring good TVL into the projects with flexible staking like AAVE etc. I think V4 is both - a threat for small cap (a lot of new ways how to steal money/rug) and an opportunity for small caps. But I'm super excited about it because it can bring a lot of innovation into the DeFi and start a new DeFi narrative wave.
What will be the first narrative pumping? Who knows - I'm not oracle. I'll watch closely the main players on the field and prepare interesting projects to quickly catch waves.
After the success of the previous round here are updated stats about what #AI and #RWA whales accumulated most in the last 30 days.
Whale 🐳 is defined by holding at least $250k worth of one of the top 15 coins (hand picked) from the narrative.
🤖 #AI whales: TAO is the main driver in the last days and also definitely the main focus of AI top whales. 16 (!) different whales accumulated in the last 30 days and most of them during the weekend pump.
What is interesting #AI whales looks much more like a degens compared to #RWA whales trading also memes like $MOG or $CATE and casino tokens like $SHFL.
🏠#RWA whales:
RWA whales acumulated mainly $MKR and $FTM which is interesting because $FTM before the Sonic upgrade occurs in both top accumulations (#AI & #RWA) in the top spots and is one of the top performing L1 (my bet too even including their ecosystem where I hold some $sGOAT and $EQUAL)
So my picks from that: - $TAO ecosystem (alpha & betas) will probably do good in the upcoming days (and did) - $FTM ecosystem could be next runner (I'm betting $sGOAT and $EQUAL) - $AAVE still in most accumulated but losing whales volume (could be a good spot to take TP)
Looking at alts after yesterday. I'm actually a little bit stressed from the 50 BPS rate cut yesterday (run or recession?) but so far charts seems pretty bullish to me.
I'm still waiting but I'll be probably looking for entries to alts in the upcoming days/weeks 🫡
In general I'm super excited about Uniswap V4. But there are two things I'm worried about:
1) Hooks adds another "function" layer which is almost "invisible" for retail users and bring another ways how to steal money. More money stolen from micro caps and scams = less money for degens in the small caps.
2) In V4 all pools are managed by a single contract so deployment is 99% cheaper. We're entering new era of scam contracts deployment.
Side question: Do you know about somebody who build some hooks that prevent EVM extraction fight snipers in some way or so? I'll be super glad for any recommendation 👍
1) With @eigenlayer stakedrop campaign (claimable tomorrow) we can probably expect launch of $EIGEN soon. According to the bets it's 50:50 until the end of September: https://t.co/ZCY7fDn7fV Some EIGEN betas can launch or existing could be a good opportunity
2) Uniswap V4 brings a lot of innovation to the DeFi field. Well good and bad innovations too. It'll create a new ways how to steal from retail but also brings a lot of new opportunities. I'm currently watching two betas for entry both building on top of V4.
3) Prediction markets and gamblefi - $RLB and $SHFL shows strength in the latest weeks. I sincerely believe that tokens with real-yield (in any form) good adoption and reasonable tokenomics are the only that will run during the next alt season.
Polymarket launch and sports season coming can serve as a catalyst. Projects worth to watch: $AZUR, $RLB or $DRIFT
4) L1 with reasonable tokenomics or resources to make a change. Good example is migration of $FTM to $S. Actually similar migrations makes sense and give to the team incentives and power to attract developers and adoption without ruining tokenomics.
1) Market seems much more readable to me compared to the last months 2) ETH underperformed the market in the latest weeks without good reason (I understand underperformance after the ETF volumes but not now and Vitalik's girlfriend expenses are not enough for me) 3) Some solid small/mid caps are getting bid again and people are sick of 5/5 tax farms. I also saw some T1 fundamental bros like @degen_z @IncomeSharks and others start talking/trading them again 🫡
And ofc the main reason: My own app (@CoinSense_App) has more followers than me so I have to do something with that or my colleagues won't stop making fun of me😆
So after 6 months out I'm going to DCA part of my PF into ETH again and let's see if we get some good opportunities 🙂