According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin sentiment is facing significant pressure as BTC price weakness has driven it to six-week lows. As the last week of June begins, Bitcoin is edging closer to retesting its lower price range, approaching the critical $60,000 support level.
1. BTC Price Hits New Six-Week Lows
Current Price Levels:
- Latest Movement: Bitcoin has dropped another 1.25% since the June 24 daily close, reaching around $62,823.
- Lowest Since May 15: BTC/USD hit $62,128 on Bitstamp, marking the lowest level since May 15.
Market Reaction:
- Bullish Nerves Tested: Bulls are now facing the challenge of a 7% loss month-to-date, with key moving averages already given up.
Trader Sentiments:
- Crypto Ed: “BTC looks weaker than I expected and should see some more downside.”
- Daan Crypto Trades: He highlights critical levels within Bitcoin’s multi-month trading range, emphasizing the importance of the "golden pocket" Fibonacci retracement level for a potential bounce.BTC/USDT perp chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades
2. PCE Week and Fed Liquidity
Key Economic Data:
- Upcoming Releases: U.S. unemployment data (June 28), revised Q2 GDP figures, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
- Impact on BTC: Previous sensitivity to employment data and the PCE’s influence as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could significantly impact Bitcoin’s direction.
Market Expectations:
- Kobeissi Letter: Emphasizes the importance of these data releases in deterring stagflation fears.
- Matthew Dixon: Predicts a lower-than-expected PCE read, potentially turning Bitcoin and other risk assets higher.
3. Stocks Outperform Crypto
Stock Market Performance:
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq: U.S. stocks have hit new highs, contrasting with crypto’s recent weakness.
- Inverse Correlation: Highlighted by Kobeissi, who notes strong market risk appetite despite crypto’s decline.
Fed’s Influence:
- Liquidity Levels: Market commentator Tomas points out a $140 billion drop in Fed liquidity last week as a potential reason for Bitcoin's underperformance, although he suggests liquidity may be near local lows, implying a possible rebound.
4. Focus on Bitcoin Whales
Whale Activity:
- Order Book Spoofing: Recent weeks have seen spoofing activities driving prices towards liquidity, creating artificial volatility.
- Accumulation Trends: Data shows mixed whale behaviour, but confidence is growing that current price levels around $62K are attracting whales.
Market Impact:
- MartyParty: Argues that whales have been buying the dip in record numbers, speculating on market manipulation by market makers.
- CryptoQuant Analysis: Indicates an uptick in inflows to accumulation addresses since June 20.
5. Decline in Crypto Sentiment
Sentiment Indices:
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Dropped to 51/100, nearing 2024 lows, indicating a shift towards fear from extreme greed a week ago.
Market Commentary:
- Santiment: Notes a rare level of fearmongering among BTC market participants.
- Jelle: Describes the worsening sentiment as typical prelude to an all-time high run, similar to previous cycles.
- IncomeSharks: Attributes low sentiment to overtrading in tough conditions, leading to losses.
Bitcoin faces a critical week ahead as it approaches $60,000, with sentiment and whale activity under the microscope. The impending economic data releases and Fed liquidity levels are expected to play pivotal roles in determining whether BTC can maintain its support and potentially set the stage for a rebound in the near future.
