During this week’s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve’s official statement and dot plot delivered a hawkish shock to the market, predicting only one rate cut in 2024 and forecasting core PCE inflation to reach 2.8% by the end of the year, higher than the previous forecast of 2.6%. However, Powell later shifted the narrative back to a dovish stance during an interview, pointing out that most officials had not taken into account the lower-than-expected CPI data released just before the meeting. Traders also tended to focus more on the favorable CPI data rather than the FOMC statement, leading to a continuous decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to the 4.20% threshold and a new high in the US stock market.

Source：Investing

In the realm of digital currencies, BTC temporarily decoupled from the macro environment and US Treasury bonds. There were significant outflows from ETFs, with FBTC and GBTC seeing outflows of $106.4 million and $61.5 million, respectively. Ark’s ARKB also experienced a $53 million outflow. So far, the net outflow for the week has reached $564 million. Additionally, well-known trader Peter Brandt shared his views on the recent trends. He noted that if there is no short-term rebound, downward pressure on prices will persist. From a technical perspective, if BTC’s price falls below the $65,000 support level, it is likely to continue dropping towards the $60,000 mark, with a further potential decline to the $48,000 low. Indeed, BTC has not been able to challenge new highs for three consecutive months, and short-term bearish sentiment in the market has not abated. However, Brandt also highlighted the potential for an upward movement in the future, emphasizing price patterns like “Hump with a Slump then a Pump and a Dump” that often occur before a bull market.

Source: Farside Investors

Source: TradingView

In the options market, implied volatility spiked to an intraday high at noon, with bullish volatility strategies represented by the 28 JUN 24 66000–68000 Long Strangle on BTC, along with significant Call/Put outright purchases for 21 JUN 24. However, the trend reversed sharply an hour before settlement, with IV quickly giving back all intraday gains, accompanied by Short Vol strategies on BTC for 21 JUN 24 and substantial selling of call options on ETH during this period, leading to an overall decline of around 1%.

Source: Deribit （As of 14 JUN 8:00 UTC）

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Transactions

Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade