You can check the Realized Price by BTC age on UTXO through the Realized Price-UTXO Age band. This is the cost basis and can act as support/resistance.
⚠️But you should not interpret the band as it is. This is because the overall Realized Cap Dominance (%) is different for each cohort.
📌Long-Term Holder: Let’s look at the actual Realized Price of LTH, reflecting the proportion of Realized Cap. When including the last cycle, the cohort ranges from 6m to 5yr and is 47.0% of the total cap.
(L: Realized Price / R: Realized Cap Dominance)
🟧6m~12m
$28.28k / 7.89%
🟩12m~18m
$20.94k / 7.89%
🟪18m~2yr
$23.73k / 3.41%
🟦2yr~3yr
$49.24k / 14.51%
⬛3yr~5yr
$26.56k / 13.29%
☑️The weighted average value reflecting their proportion is $31.66k.
1) The difference from the current price of $63.47k is significant, and most of the LTH is in profit.
- - This is why the tendency to realize LTH profits is high.
2) $31.66k is near the short-term high in July 2023, which was a sideways market, and is about 50% of the current price.
3) The reason why 3y-5y RP has risen sharply recently is because of LTH purchased during the 2020-2021 bull market.
- However, their Realized Cap Dominance does not increase much compared to RP.
- This is because they have endured losses for a long time and show a strong tendency to realize profits now that they have passed the break-even point.
4) The 2y-3y cohort also showed a significant tendency to realize profits, showing a significant decrease in dominance.
5) It is unlikely that the price will be sharply adjusted (-50%) to $31.66k, but it is difficult to expect strong support with the LTH Dominance reduced.
- The maximum drawdown in this cycle was -20% and -36% in 2015-2017. 2019-2021 was 62%, but this was due to COVID-19.
6) STH RP of $59k will act as support, but we need to monitor whether it can be maintained.
Written by Yonsei_dent