How Did Bitcoin Price Move During and After Previous Halvings: Here is the Data
How did the halving period, one of Bitcoin's most anticipated events, affect the BTC price in past events?
As we approach the next Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for Saturday, April 20 at approximately 1:00 am ET, it is worth taking a look at how the Bitcoin price has reacted before and after previous halvings.
Historically, the year following the halving has seen significant increases in Bitcoin's price:
2012: 8.839%
2016: 285%
2020: 548%
The month following the halving saw more mixed results:
2012: 9%
2016: -10%
2020: 6%
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While the data we have is limited, an interesting pattern emerges: The market is pricing in the short-term impact of the halving but underestimating the long-term impact.
Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes shared his thoughts on the upcoming Bitcoin halving in a Medium post last week. While discussing the halving, which is seen as a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrency markets, he said:
“I agree that this will raise prices in the medium term, but price movements immediately before and after may be negative.”
Hayes also noted:
“The narrative that the halving is positive for crypto prices is well established. When most market participants agree on a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs.“I believe that Bitcoin and crypto prices will generally decline during the halving period.”*This is not investment advice.
