$BTC Bitcoin continues to flirt with the 70K resistance zone (blue rectangle on chart) and has followed the first leg of my previous chart illustration. With the halving coming very soon, there continues to be over exaggerated claims of Bitcoin "going to 100K by next month" nonsense. Again stop listening to people, LISTEN TO PRICE.
First, realize that my analysis and perspective is for the short term trader. NOT the investor. My time horizon for my articles is typically 1 to 2 WEEKS out. As a quick note, when prices are flirting with all time highs, and looks its best, it is usually NOT a good time to be investing, especially with leveraged products.
As for scenarios for this week: you will notice an arrow pointing to the previous all time high and a blue rectangle between 73,500 and 76,500 AREAS. This is the high probability bearish reversal zone of fake out zone. If Bitcoin is going to fake out, this area is where it is most likely to begin. Watch for bearish pin bars, bearish engulfing candles, etc on the larger time frames. Keep in mind if price is pushing into the 76K area, it is going to get a LOT of attention by the hype machine. Meanwhile these are highly vulnerable prices for longs.
IF price retraces from this area, it can still considered a B wave, and can find support in the 64K to 60K support areas. it is more likely to consolidate recent gains rather than become a "bear market". Many forces are in play simultaneously and it would take a major catalyst to surprise the market in order to initiate a "bear market" or a broader correction.
As of now, there is a new swing trade long signal in effect from the 70,500 area. Since it is appearing inside a resistance zone, it is less than ideal and carries greater risk. This could be the beginning of the push the 73K test and fake out scenario I just described.
Another important thing to note: similar to the reversal zone from 73,5 to 76.5, there is a larger magnitude zone (not on this chart) that spans as high as 83K. Which means over the next few MONTHS,
