Foreign Banks' Interest Rate Predictions for Turkey. 🇹🇷📉📈
Foreign financial institutions have been closely monitoring Turkey's economic landscape, particularly in anticipation of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB)'s upcoming interest rate decision.
🔹Deutsche Bank:
Expects a probable 500 basis point increase in the TCMB's policy rate this month, revising their estimate upwards to 50% due to worsening inflation dynamics.
🔹Bank of America (BofA):
Suggests a potential 300-500 basis point hike in April, contingent upon February's inflation data, following a recent visit to Turkey.
🔹JPMorgan:
Forecasts a 500 basis point rate increase in April, citing February's inflation figures surpassing expectations.
🔹Morgan Stanley:
Adjusted their scenario, removing expectations for rate cuts from TCMB in late 2024. They now anticipate the first rate cut in Q1 2025.
🔹HSBC:
Predicts the benchmark interest rate to hold steady at 45% this year, but acknowledges risks for further increases. They anticipate potential rate cuts only from Q1 2025 onwards.
◽Recent Developments and Expectations:
The TCMB Para Politikası Kurulu is scheduled to convene on March 21st, with the interest rate decision announcement set for 14:00 local time on the same day.
February's inflation figures have surpassed expectations, fueling speculation of renewed tightening measures by the TCMB.
Different banks have varying outlooks on the timing and extent of future interest rate adjustments, though there's a consensus on the potential for further hikes in the near term.
Factors like inflation trends, the economic outlook, and global market conditions are expected to shape TCMB's policy decisions in the coming months.
