Introduction:
As the April 2024 Bitcoin Halving approaches, understanding the nuanced journey of Bitcoin's price dynamics becomes paramount. This article unveils the five essential phases that characterize the Halving event, offering insights into historical trends and strategic approaches for investors. From the pre-halving anticipation to the eventual parabolic uptrend, navigating these phases is key to unlocking the potential of the cryptocurrency market.
1. Pre-halving period
Approximately 65 days remaining until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
Historically, any deeper retraces that occure during this period tend to generate fantastic Return On Investment for investors in the several months after the Halving
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This upcoming period will be crucial as any retrace during this period will likely represent the final bargain-buying opportunity for Bitcoin
Specifically, there is a 30-day window or so where a deeper retrace could occur, between now and the Pre-Halving rally which we will discuss next
2. Pre-Halving rally
Then ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)
In anticipation of the Halving, investors “Buy the Hype” in an effort to “sell the News”
Short-term traders and speculators “Buy the Hpye” several weeks before the Halving in antcipation of making a profit, contributing to a pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself
3. Pre-Halving retrace
A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur around the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep
In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep
This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks, making investors to question whether the Halving was a bullish catalyst on price after all
4. Re-Accumulation
The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)
Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving
5. Parabolic Uptrend
Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)
It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All Time Highs.
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