Goldman Sachs Postpones Bullish Gold Forecast: What’s Happening?

Traders are weighing the impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields against a weaker dollar. Against this backdrop, gold reversed losses from earlier Monday to hold firm. The market’s focus is now on upcoming U.S. economic data that could potentially influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates. Gold’s movement this week is closely tied to U.S. economic indicators. Investors are looking ahead to the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, ADP employment data on Wednesday and the Fed meeting minutes. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will provide clarity on labor market conditions, which is expected to influence the Fed’s policy stance.

The rising yields reflect market skepticism about aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.634%. Goldman Sachs analysts have adjusted their gold price forecast as the expected rate cuts have eased. In this context, analysts have moved their $3,000 target to the second quarter of 2026.

The dollar weakened by 1% after news that President-elect Donald Trump may limit tariffs to critical sectors and ease fears of widespread trade restrictions. This news also softened inflation expectations. In this context, market analyst James Hyerczyk makes the following assessment:

Customs tariffs continue to be a potential inflation driver. This could indirectly support gold as a hedge. High inflation and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to provide fundamental support for gold. However, easing tensions in the Middle East may limit safe-haven purchases in the near term.

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