YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Investment manager VanEck predicts that a US Bitcoin Reserve could cover up to 35% of the national debt by 2050. This estimate supports Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act, which proposes holding one million BTC by 2029.
US Debt vs Bitcoin Reserve Growth Projection․ Source: VanEck on X
VanEck’s analysis estimates that the reserve’s value could reach $42 trillion by 2049, assuming Bitcoin grows at 25% CAGR annually starting at $200,000 in 2025. This projection also expects the US national debt to increase by 5% per year from $37 trillion in 2025.
Although Bitcoin’s annual growth rate over the last decade has averaged 50%, VanEck considers the 25% CAGR assumption conservative. Critics, however, argue that achieving such growth consistently over the next 25 years may be challenging.
Bitcoin Reserve and Its Role in Strengthening the US Dollar
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Research, supports the creation of a US Bitcoin Reserve, addressing concerns raised by crypto investor Nic Carter. Sigel explained that the reserve would not weaken the US dollar but instead act as a complementary asset.
He stated:
“Bitcoin doesn’t have to undermine the dollar. As in an investor portfolio, a small position is simply a hedge against fiscal unsustainability and geopolitical uncertainty.”
US Debt vs Bitcoin Reserve Growth. Source: Matthew Sigel
Sigel emphasized that Bitcoin could provide fiscal stability and discipline for the US financial system. He also mentioned the growing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, indicating that gradual implementation could align with existing political interest.
Gradual Process to Build US Bitcoin Reserve
VanEck estimates the cost of acquiring one million BTC at approximately $320 billion, countering claims that it would require over $1 trillion. The plan proposes a gradual accumulation process to avoid financial strain while leveraging Bitcoin’s neutral status as a reserve asset.
Bitcoin Reserve Value vs US National Debt 2049. Source: VanEck Web
Sigel pointed out that Bitcoin mining could also support US energy goals. Mining activities encourage investments in domestic energy infrastructure, including renewable energy and nuclear projects. This aligns with broader goals of energy independence and grid resiliency.
While the Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, currently prohibits government Bitcoin purchases, future administrations may revisit the idea.
