1.The Logic Behind This Market Cycle
We're in a rate-cutting cycle, but liquidity is tight. Interest rates are unlikely to keep falling indefinitely. If inflation rebounds, especially due to factors like Trump's tariffs, the Fed might halt or even reverse rate cuts. Therefore, expect tight liquidity for at least the next six months.
The market is highly competitive, with numerous projects offering similar products without clear real-world use cases. This overheated market, coupled with tight liquidity, has led to significant price declines. This cycle favors value-based assets over speculative projects. Some coins have already halved in value and may take months to recover. Long-term investors should conduct thorough research and avoid impulsive decisions. Remember, there's always a cost to overnight riches.
In the long term, it's a bull market. However, we might witness a significant US stock market correction. Consider Buffett's recent moves. With interest rates falling, the dollar is likely to flow back to its origin. If the war ends, this process will accelerate.
2.BTC
Bitcoin has already reached $100,000, a figure widely accepted as a milestone for digital gold. However, its current market cap is still far from matching that of physical gold. As AI, blockchain, and VR reshape our lives towards a more virtual and digital existence, Bitcoin will solidify its position as the de facto digital gold.
Now is the opportune time to invest, but the best entry point will be when Bitcoin experiences a weekly chart-level pullback. In fact, we can anticipate a new bull market for cryptocurrencies within the next one to two years.
3.Altcoins
Except for a few altcoins with strong fundamentals or backed by significant capital, most altcoins are unlikely to sustain an upward trend due to tight liquidity.
In a liquidity-constrained environment, it's best to focus on altcoins with strong underlying value. These coins are more likely to rebound during a market recovery.