Bitcoin (BTC) stayed below $105,000 on Dec. 18 as markets awaited the next US Federal Reserve interest rates decision.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin traders see Fed rate cut confirmation
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price support retests characterizing the landscape around the day’s Wall Street open.
Due at 2:30 pm Eastern Time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement on rates will be followed by a speech and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
As Cointelegraph reported, expectations firmly favor the Fed cutting the benchmark rate by 0.25%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reiterated concerns about 2025 seeing an upward pivot in Fed policy thanks to resurgent inflation — despite ending the current year with cuts.
“While a 25 basis point rate cut is expected today, odds of rate HIKES returning in 2025 are rising,” it wrote in one of its latest posts on X.
Kobeissi referenced prediction service Kalshi displaying 19% odds of the Fed hiking rates.
Source: Kalshi
“With inflation back on the rise while the labor market is weakening, the Fed must make a difficult decision. Fulfilling both parts of their dual mandate is becoming increasingly difficult,” it added.
“Will the Fed prioritize inflation or the labor market?”
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
BTC price cools as “pre-FOMC sellers” dominate
Bitcoin itself saw familiar trading conditions into FOMC, with sell-side pressure reflecting typical risk-off sentiment prior to the event.
“Market is very much in a dip buying mood,” popular trader Skew told X followers.
“So far throughout today we're seeing a decrease in long interest as risk is being cut pre - FOMC. The key here though is spot flow which has been dominated by pre-fomc sellers.”
BTC/USDT futures market data for Binance. Source: Skew/X
Skew nonetheless suggested that it would not “take much” to flip momentum back in bulls’ favor.
Other market voices noted an unfilled “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets at around $102,000, with fellow trading account MoGambit seeing the potential for BTC/USD to fill it during FOMC.
“While history shows us that not every gap gets closed, this one has the potential to be,” GalaxyTrading continued in part of its own post on the topic.
CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour chart with gap highlighted. Source: GalaxyTrading/X
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