The excitement from the Trump-Musk rally has fueled the crypto market for almost a month, but this rally is nearing its conclusion. As the month comes to a close, the focus is on the monthly closing price, which is projected to settle between 85,000 and 88,000. However, December is expected to bring significant volatility. A small price increase is likely between December 1–3, followed by a potential sharp drop around December 5. This could be a critical turning point for the market, so stay alert and cautious.
Reflecting on the 2020–2021 Bull Run
The 2020–2021 bull market can provide valuable insights into the current trends. Here’s how it played out:
1. First Stage (October 2020–March 2021):
The market experienced six straight months of growth, peaking at 54,200 in March 2021.
The rally ended with a correction in April, completing a seven-month phase.
2. Second Stage (May–November 2021):
After recovering, the market hit a new high of 58,000 in November 2021.
This was followed by a significant drop from 54,200 to 25,000, representing a 54% decline.
What’s Happening in the 2023 Bull Market?
The current bull market has similarities, with two distinct phases:
1. First Stage (October 2023–March 2024):
The market climbed steadily, reaching a peak of 63,500 by March 2024, after six consecutive months of rising prices.
2. Second Stage (September–November 2024):
Between April and August, the market faced significant fluctuations, dropping from 63,500 to 38,000, a 40% correction.
In November, the market surged to 89,500, with Bitcoin futures crossing the 90,000 mark, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
The Role of Institutions in the Current Market
This bull market is unique because it includes participation from both seasoned institutional players and newer entrants:
Old Institutions:
These established players have low-cost positions and significant holdings. Their strategies are calculated, aiming to profit by driving the market to desired levels.
New Institutions:
These newcomers have higher entry costs and smaller positions compared to the old players. To achieve their profit targets, they need prices to go beyond 70,000.
This dynamic means both groups are aligned in pushing prices higher, but their methods differ.
From April to August, the market showed unusual patterns of wide swings and declines, indicating a shift in how old institutions operate. With fewer new retail investors and more experienced traders, traditional market tactics like sudden dips are becoming less effective.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The rally is unlikely to end at 89,500. Market pressure from institutions suggests the price could climb to 110,000 or even higher. Both old and new players are pushing for bigger gains, creating a strong bullish outlook.
Key Events to Watch for in December:
1. Early December Rise:
A minor price increase is expected between December 1–3, which could present short-term trading opportunities.
2. Major Drop Around December 5:
A steep correction is likely on this date, based on historical patterns. Be prepared to adjust your trades accordingly.
3. Long-Term Potential:
With institutional interest driving the market, prices may reach 110,000 or more, signaling a continued upward trend.
What You Should Do:
Monitor price movements and announcements from major market players.
Use risk management strategies to navigate the expected volatility in December.
Stay focused on the long-term potential, as this rally is far from over.
The market is gearing up for major moves in December. Keep your strategies sharp, and don’t miss the chance to capitalize on the opportunities ahead. This could be a defining moment in your trading journey.
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