The Fear & Greed Index has reached an elevated level of 90, signaling extreme market sentiment. Historical trends provide insight into what this could mean for Bitcoin's price action:
1. June 26, 2019: Index at 95, leading to a top at $13,970 followed by a correction to $3,800.
2. December 2020: Sustained levels above 90, initiating a bull run from $17.6k to $41k (+138%).
3. February 2021: Index above 90, a climb to $57k-$58k, followed by a dip to $28,850, then another surge to $62k (+124%).
4. March 2024: Last impulse to $68,500 before an eight-month consolidation phase between $49k-$73k.
Takeaways
Extreme greed doesn’t always signal a sell-off; it can indicate strong bullish momentum and heightened volatility.
While previous cycles show a mix of corrections and bull runs, the evolving market structure over the years suggests different outcomes.
Forecast: Despite choppy price action, a target of $95k-$100k for Bitcoin remains plausible. Potential correction levels include:
Year VWAP VAH2 around $81,500.
CME Futures Gap between $77,930-$80,670.
Liquidity Pools to watch:
Above: $92,930, $93,370, $93,890, $94,260.
Below: $90,860, $90,200, $89,530, $89,015.
Investors should remain cautious, balancing risk management with the opportunity for further gains.
Trump's Second Term Immigration Plans: Mass Deportations and Military Involvement
President-elect Donald Trump has confirmed his plan to implement mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, marking what he calls the "largest deportation program in U.S. history." Trump intends to declare a national emergency and deploy the military to assist with enforcement efforts.
Team Setup for Immigration Crackdown
Key figures in Trump’s administration include:
Tom Homan: Appointed as "Border Czar."
Stephen Miller: Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy.
Kristi Noem: Nominated as Secretary of Homeland Security.
Logistical and Legal Challenges
The American Immigration Council estimates deporting 1 million individuals annually could cost $960 billion over 10 years.
Trump’s goal of deporting up to 20 million people contrasts with Pew Research’s estimate of 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. (2022).
Proposed Measures
Federalizing National Guard troops to assist in enforcement.
Building large detention centers.
Deploying troops from Republican-led states to support less cooperative regions.
Criticism and Concerns
Advocacy groups warn of the potential impacts on families and civil liberties. United We Dream Action argues that Trump lacks a public mandate for such measures, emphasizing the economic and social consequences. Greisa Martinez Rosas from the organization stated, "Trump may be re-elected, but he does not have a mandate to tear apart our communities."
The proposed crackdown raises critical questions about feasibility, public support, and the broader implications for American society.