Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling for direction a day before the United States presidential election, with polls depicting a tight race between Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Here’s what analysts are predicting for Bitcoin as the standoff between Trump and Harris approach.
Bitcoin could hit $80-90K if Trump wins
The Bitcoin price will likely reach $80,000-90,000 next if Trump wins the election, according to Bernstein analysts.
Source: X
Trump’s support for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is the main reason behind the bullish outlook. In his electoral rallies, he has publicly advocated for the US to become a leader in the cryptocurrency industry.
Key proposals include appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair to ease regulatory pressures, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve to support BTC adoption, and making the US a hub for Bitcoin mining.
Bernstein’s bullish prediction for Bitcoin aligns with a fractal analysis showcasing BTC reaching new all-time highs following US presidential elections, particularly when aligned with its halving events that occur approximately every four years.
For instance, in 2012, after the first halving in November, Bitcoin rallied from around $12 to its then all-time high of approximately $1,150 by late 2013—a surge of nearly 9,500%.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Moustache
Similarly, in 2016, the second halving was followed by another strong rally. Bitcoin rose from around $650 in mid-2016 to around $20,000 in December 2017, marking an increase of over 3,000% from the pre-halving period.
The third cycle followed the same pattern. After the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose from around $9,000 and reached a new high of $69,000 in November 2021.
With the fourth halving recently completed in April 2024, and the US election set for Nov. 5, historical trends suggest potential for another upward movement in Bitcoin’s price, probably toward Bernstein’s $80,000-90,000 target.
In October, they had predicted a BTC price rally toward $200,000 in 2025 regardless of the US election outcome.
Bitcoin will see “instant dump” on a Harris win
Market analyst Miles Deutscher suggests that Bitcoin will likely reach $100,000 or higher regardless of who wins the US presidential election, but the path and timing would differ based on the outcome.
He argues that Harris winning the US election will cause an “instant dump” in the Bitcoin market. That will likely happen due to market fears that Harris’s administration could maintain or even strengthen regulatory scrutiny on crypto.
Source: X
The outlook aligns with growing Polymarket bids on a Bitcoin price crash in November.
For instance, the strongest bets are for a drop to $65,000, with a 75% implied probability for Bitcoin to reach the level, as indicated by the 76¢ price for "Yes" shares.
Bids on Bitcoin price target for November. Source: Polymarket
Bitcoin to $100K by November’s end?
November has historically been the most profitable month for Bitcoin since 2013, delivering a 46% average return. That has prompted analyst Lark Davis to anticipate similar upside runs in 2024.
“If we see a 46% pump from current prices, it would take BTC to $104,000,” he noted in his recent X post.
BTC/USD three-day price chart. Source: Lark Davis
The upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on Nov. 7, where there’s speculation of a 25-basis-point rate cut, may also boost Bitcoin’s upside potential, even if it means a rally toward Bernstein’s $80,000-90,000 target.
The convergence of Bitcoin’s historically strong November performance, a possible Fed rate cut, and the pro-crypto narrative surrounding Trump’s candidacy are aligning to create an optimistic outlook for BTC this month.
The price rose 0.25% in the last 24 hours to reach around $68,760 on Nov. 4, but was down 7.35% from its local high $73,600 established a week prior.
BTC Futures open interest. Source: Coinglass
The BTC price decline accompanies a $1.1 billion drop in futures market’s open interest, liquidating roughly $300 million worth of positions, indicating many traders are reducing their exposure ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
